David Lereah

David Lereah, ex-chief economist of NAR
Was the chief spokesman of the NAR and is responsible for hyping the housing market with comments such as: "If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years. It's as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress."

Dr. Housing Bubble has a good summary of this character:
2007-08-17: Greater Expectations: Quotes and Psychology of a Modern Day Housing Bull.
Wikipedia_David_Lereah
Truly a perfect fool for the job.

2008-05-06: Latest from Dr. Housing Bubble

2008-05-06: It’s Going to Get Worse
Economist David Lereah was once the housing market's biggest cheerleader. Now he says the bust isn't near over, and home prices still have a long way to fall.
"We're not at the bottom," he says. "[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we're not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There's still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better."

Bertrand Family

Kristin and Mike Bertrand, Home ATM / House-debtors

The pattern repeats... HELOC your way to a better lifestyle, months or years later, hand over the keys.

They say they are "casualties of a faltering economy". I say they got caught with their hands in the cookie jar. Refinanced "a few times". Repeat those words... "a few times." Two words for them: 'Risk management'.

They might want to invite the Moises to the party. They're going to need some help, soon.

Here's a video of lovely Ventura: Foreclosures

2008-04-04: Local couple starts a group
Caught in the downturn
Kristin and Mike Bertrand say they were not casualties of the mortgage crisis, but of a faltering economy. When the couple purchased a home in 2001, their combined income was more than $140,000. They determined their mortgage, then around $360,000, was affordable.

But they refinanced a few times, taking out equity to pay for bills. It compensated for a reduction in income, tens of thousands of dollars in loan fees and for upgrades.
Mike Bertrand, who builds and markets Web sites, has had job changes and had been out of work since February. He started a new job in mid-April with an annual salary of $62,500 — not nearly enough to afford the $4,200 monthly payment on a new mortgage.

He admitted that if they hadn't refinanced, there is a chance the family could have stayed in the house.

Donald Luskin

Don Luskin, so-called CIO Trend Macrolytics /Propagandist
Enemy of Freedom? You decide.

Ironically, this guy has his blog, titled...
Chronicle of the Conspiracy:
Join us as we discover, document, expose and challenge the bad people, the bad institutions and the bad ideas that stand in the way of wealth creation -- and show you how to fight back!

2006-09-22: Economic Mythology
Yet many investors seem to believe that the consumer has only been spending because of gains in real estate during the so-called "housing bubble" of the last three years. They believe that when the value of your home rises, you experience a "wealth effect" — you are willing to spend more money, simply because your house is worth more. Economists have studied the "wealth effect" in depth. Based on these studies, most economic models say that when the value of your house goes up by $100, you are willing to spend an additional $3 every year.

So how big is the "wealth effect" for housing? According to data from the Federal Reserve, the value of real estate held by households grew by $1.7 trillion over the last four quarters. Three percent of that is $50 billion.

So out of the $555 billion in spending growth over the last four quarters, the housing "wealth effect" explains only $50 billion. But what needs explaining in the first place? Simple income growth already explains all but $5 billion of the spending gains.
So who needs a housing "wealth effect?"

Another often-heard reason for doom-and-gloom about the consumer is high energy prices. Is that story any more true than the one about the housing wealth effect? Nope.

2006-12-15: All the Data Point to More Rate Hikes
But the forces of pessimism that have fought against this current economic expansion from the day it began have seized on the housing slump as yet another of their reasons to foretell disaster. What else has it been over the last five years of growth: war, scandals, hurricanes, energy prices, outsourcing, deficits, you name it. All wrong, then and now.

2006-12-29: Pundits Misread Bonds in '06
Except that the economy just refuses to act anything like the bond market is supposedly predicting. Even the worst-performing sector of the economy — residential real estate — gives every sign of stabilizing. While a supposed "housing crash" is going on, homebuilding stocks have been steadily rallying for the last five months. I think real GDP in the fourth quarter of this year will come in about 3% — and that meets anyone's definition of a strong economy.

2007-07-27: Market Correction
If you're looking to buy, the so-called collapse of the so-called housing bubble is great news. Your dream home just went on sale! Attention all you Kmart shoppers.

2008-05-04: Housing Near Bottom?
I'm not here to tell you that home prices are at absolute bottom this very moment. But I can argue pretty persuasively that they might be. Or that they are close.

2008-05-04: Mish Rebuttal to Previous Moronic Article

Big shout out to 'msaghirmd'.
http://www.youtube.com/user/msaghirmd

Don Luskin - Propagandist


Tribute to Peter Schiff
Listen to Luskin at 2:55. This guy is insane.
"Billions of peasants around the world are willing to work in poorly lit and poorly ventilated factories just to get our paper money, because it's that precious."

Alan Nevin

Alan Nevin, Chief Economist, California Building Industry Association and San Diego-based MarketPointe Realty Advisors
How do these people live with themselves? (Hat tip to BMIT)

2008-04-27: Resales of homes a house divided

“Anybody who's going to walk away from a house or condo has already done it,” Nevin said. “Now it's just a matter of the pig going through the snake.”

2007-01-24: Builders' economist sees stability through 2010

Q: Looking past 2007, what's the crystal ball say for O.C. building in the ensuing years, say, through 2010. Can we escape without any harsh tumbles?
A: Because Orange County is land-restricted, it is very difficult to have a glut of new product. Therefore, I see a stable market through 2010.

2005-09-14: Real estate guru: Local housing market stable

Asked where he would recommend buying real estate in the North County coastal area, Nevin replied: "Everywhere. There's no negatives."

Nevin's talk was reassuring, said Frank Mercardante, Southwest president and chief executive."He emphasized there is no bubble and there won't be, because of the demand for real estate here in San Diego County," Mercardante said.

2005-06-04: Homeowner equity swells by $1 trillion
SAN FRANCISCO – California's steadily rising property values have created $1 trillion in homeowner wealth during the past five years – a boon that has bolstered the economy through several rocky patches, according to a study by an industry trade group. The estimate released this week by the California Building Industry Association shows the upside of a real-estate boom that has lifted housing prices to unprecedented heights.

"Overall, the study shows that we in California who are homeowners have been remarkably blessed," said Alan Nevin, the association's chief economist.

Elizabeth Razzi

Elizabeth Razzi, Columnist/Author
Author of "The Fearless Home Buyer". The Fearless Home Buyer? You have got to be fu**ing kidding me.

2008-04-27: Brokerage Barons
Razzi: What do you think of bloggers who seem to root for an even bigger bust?

Housing Panic handled a response to the above question with aplomb. Bloggers don't root for a bigger bust. We just want prices to return to normal, based on reasonable lending standards. Perhaps the book convinces you to be fearless in the face of a price that is 10x your gross income. Yes, be fearless, throw your money away! Why not write a book about the housing bubble, its causes, and its impact. However, its impact will be felt for the next decade.

I.R.S.

Internal Revenue Service
Well, the IRS didn't exactly cause the Housing Bubble, but they are certainly doing their part to screw anybody that didn't have anything to do with it. How, you ask?

By socializing $290B in losses, and we're just getting started.

2008-04-23: Fannie, Freddie May Pay Lower Taxes After Rule Change
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other companies suffering as mortgage delinquencies rise won a two-year battle with the IRS yesterday, allowing them to use those losses to reduce their tax burden.

The Internal Revenue Service withdrew proposed regulations that had asserted that mortgage loans are capital assets and any losses from them could be used only to offset capital gains. The agency also said it wouldn't challenge companies that count such losses against ordinary income.

The action also clears the way for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and some other holders of defaulted loans ranging from auto lenders to credit card issuers to benefit from Senate-passed tax legislation that would allow companies to apply those losses against previous tax years to get immediate refunds. So far, 70 of the world's biggest banks, securities firms and mortgage companies have taken about $290 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007.
...
Carry backs currently are limited to two years; the Senate legislation would temporarily expand that to four. A House panel passed a separate relief measure that doesn't contain the provision.

It means that the losses they sustain on these instruments will be eligible for the four-year carry back, assuming that provision gets enacted,'' Willens said. The biggest beneficiaries of the IRS action will be Fannie, Freddie and mortgage originators,

Richard 'Dick' Gaylord

Dick Gaylord, REMAX Realtor / 2008 NAR President
Is this guy on drugs??? Last quarter of 2008--he called it! Whew! I feel much better now.

I would ask, "Who write this stuff?", but this jackass seems like he was born to spit out this trash.
2008-04-22: Existing-Home Sales Slip in March
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real EstateSpecialists in Long Beach, Calif., said there are problems with theimplementation of mortgage guidelines. "It appears there is some over-reaction on the part of some lenders now in requiring higher downpayment percentages than may be necessary," he said.

He's baaaaaackkkkkkk!!!


Dick, you mo**er fu**er!!!
2008-01-24: Letter to N.Pelosi For Conforming Loan Increase
The critical role that the GSEs play in providing liquidity to the mortgage market has never been more evident than it is today. Unlike most proposed stimulus measures being discussed, a national conforming loan limit increase to $625,000 would have a positive, immediate impact on the housing market and the broader economy. Specifically, NAR estimates that increasing the conforming loan limit to $625,000 will strengthen current home prices by 2 to 3 percent and generate $42 billion in increased economic activity.

2008-01-14: NAR Campaign Relates Real Facts
"Nobody buys a home in the national real estate market," (What about price?) said NAR President Dick Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif. "All real estate markets are local, and buyers and sellers who are thinking about making a move should consult with a Realtor(R) in their local market to learn about conditions specific to the area. (What about price?) It's also advisable to look beyond the immediate horizon -- real estate has proven itself to be a good long-term investment and a safe, secure way to build long-term wealth." (What about price?)

2007-11-04: Time to buy? Depends on whom you ask
"I'm not seeing the market fall apart. Are we having a correction? Absolutely," said Long Beach broker Dick Gaylord, who becomes the 2008 NAR president next month. "I think for most buyers, this is a great time. The question is, are you buying right?"

"I don't think this will go on much longer," Gaylord added, forecasting a turnaround by the last quarter of 2008.

Realtors welcome national association president
Dick Gaylord told an audience at the Visalia Convention Center that he's "never been more confident" in the market. "Real estate has always been the best way Americans built wealth and it will always be," Gaylord said.

"The problem is there has been a tremendous appreciation [in property values] over the past five or 10 years and now people have a misperception of real estate as an investment," he said. "They think it's a short-term investment and it's not."

He counted down the positives in today's market, including continued low interest rates, a growing gross domestic product output and solid employment.

"This is a great time and the industry will continue to survive," he said.

Housing Bubble Solution(?)

Here is your dream home, but there's a catch. It's your dream home PLUS somebody else's. As the MLS description states:

LOOK AT THIS ONE!!! One of the few homes where FLOOD INSURANCE IS NOT REQUIRED!! One of the few Perfect for entertaining. Spacious custom contemporary with new custom cabinets in kitchen, baths,laundry, dining, wet bar and around fireplace. Large swimming pool with jacuzzi. HUGE owners suite with its own a/c system. Front of home overlooks 11th fairway, Rear overlooks 18th hole. Very private upscale neighborhood priced to sell fast. Too large for single owner. THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE, CLOSING COULD BE IMMEDIATE. MUST SEE BEFORE SOMEONE ELSE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME!!!

BWAHAHAHA (hat tip Ace)

MLS #: 7340786 (link to Realtor's site)
Price: $850,000
Address: 908 Royal Birkdale Dr, Tarpon Springs, FL 34688
Neighborhood: Cypress Run
Type: Single DOUBLE Family Residential for Sale
Floors: Single Story Parking/Garage: 3+
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 4
Half Baths: 1
Square Feet: 4574

There is the answer to the Housing Bubble--start doubling up on ownership.

Nicolas Retsinas

Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies
I've been eyeing Mr. Retisinas for induction for a while now. Congratulations, moron.
Induction Date: Dec 20, 2007

Nicolas on the housing problem...
Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies commented "The fundamental problem with housing is oversupply.''

2007-12-17: Seeking Alpha Rebuttal
Adding to the growing evidence that you can work at Harvard and still be a moron, Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies commented "The fundamental problem with housing is oversupply.''

2006-09-27: Sep 2006 Article from Housing Panic

2008-03-25: Good news in the housing market (???)
"The numbers indicate that if price goes down, sales go up."

This is what they teach you at Harvard! Congratulations; after you read this you have an Ivy League education.

Housing Bubble Disbelievers

To all the Housing Bubble disbelievers and defenders of the monkeys that appear here, these videos are dedicated to you. Go score some more interest only loans.

Nation of Debt


Tribute to Peter Schiff

Wachovia

Wachovia, "Worry Free" Banking
"A housing-driven recession is mathematically impossible."
LOL


2008-04-14: Wachovia's California nightmare
Wachovia investors are paying through the nose for the bank's ill-advised California gold rush. Shareholders in Charlotte, N.C.-based Wachovia were rocked Monday by a nasty one-two punch: a sudden (and dilutive) sale of common and convertible preferred stock, and the bank's first quarterly loss since 2001. Wachovia swung to a $350 million loss in the first quarter, reversing the year-ago $1.2 billion profit, as the bank posted weak numbers across its businesses. The breadth of the bank's losses stunned Wall Street, sending shares down 10%.

2008-04-14: Wachovia to Receive Big Infusion of Capital
Wachovia Corp., which barreled into adjustable-rate mortgages with the huge acquisition of Golden West Financial Corp. near the peak of the housing market, could announce as soon as Monday that it is getting a capital infusion of several billion dollars from outside investors, according to people familiar with the matter.

Final terms of the deal were being hammered out Sunday night, but it appeared likely the fifth-largest U.S. bank in stock-market value would receive $6 billion to $7 billion. In return, the investor group would get shares priced roughly $23 to $24 apiece -- a 15% discount to Wachovia's share price Friday.

2008-01-22: Wachovia Customers Just Walking Away
(Calculated Risk)

2007-10-19: Wachovia: Increasing Credit Troubles Ahead
(Calculated Risk)

2006-06-27: Housing Driven Recession Impossible
(Calculated Risk)
'A housing-driven recession is "mathematically impossible," said Wachovia Bank senior economist Mark Vitner, because housing is derived from the rest of the economy and construction is actually a smaller portion of the U.S. economy than during the housing boom of the late 1970s. Even if home values soften in expensive markets, many homeowners are still sitting on substantial home equity cushions.'

Cheryl Oliphant

Cheryl Oliphant, tiny-Trump™, Santa Monica
Perhaps the title of the story should have been, "Did average people think real estate was their ticket to riches?" I've said it before, I'll say it again: The average person SHOULD NOT be gambling/speculating in real estate.
(hat tip Buzz Saw)

2008-04-13: Did appraisers juice Florida real-estate market?
Cheryl Oliphant of Santa Monica, Calif., bought a house that lenders shopped to appraisers as being worth $550,000. The registered nurse now thinks the appraisal was inflated.

A novice (Read: idiot or retarded or jack-ass) real-estate investor, Oliphant said she used her retirement savings and bought at the top of the market, thinking she had a great deal and instant equity in the house because it appraised for $50,000 more than the $450,000 sales price."

The appraisal was wishful thinking," said Oliphant, who could not provide the appraiser's name. "I became a little suspicious later when I went to refinance and the next appraiser was having a hard time finding the value."

Oliphant has been trying to sell the house at a $100,000 loss and plans to file for bankruptcy, losing her $50,000 down payment. She said she might ultimately have to abandon that house and four others she bought in Florida...

Four Others!!! WTF!!!

Amber Barbosa

Amber Barbosa, Mortgage Broker/High School Grajewit
Subprime brokers "help" homeowners. Uhhhhh... right. BTW, they are not "homeowners", they are "house-debtors".

I encourage you to follow the link and listen to the NPR audio report. The broker-whores KNEW about the fraud and played a key role in the bubble. Just ask Roxie Chilcott about the phenomenal profits they were "guilty of making"; strange choice of words. And she also said the risks were reasonable.

2008-04-09: Ex-Subprime Brokers Help Troubled Homeowners
Amber Barbosa didn't graduate college. But she did get an education — by working for the now infamous subprime lender New Century Mortgage Corp.

Barbosa was a quick study: A few years later, she struck out on her own as a mortgage broker. "In 2006, I made close to $500,000," she says. Not bad for a 28-year-old with no college degree.

By then Barbosa, who was living outside of San Francisco, had a nice boat, a 27-foot Bayliner. She had several houses, a Mercedes and a Cadillac. "I was riding around in my '07 Escalade," she says. "God, I had three properties at the time — one right on the water with ocean access, another property worth $800,000." (From the audio: "I was living". Yes, that is the definition of "living" in the USA: Escalade and Mercedes. Fu** you, whore!)

Chuck Smiar

Chuck Smiar, Prudential Realtor in Escondido
Chuck should probably stick to what he know best, which, as near as I can tell, is NOTHING! Who said homes are going to "zero"? They're just going to drop 20-50% depending on your location--that's all.

We have an update on the Smiar-o-Graph from Prof. Piggington.

North San Diego County housing market stays sluggish
"There's buyers out there, but they're just not buying. They're sitting on the fence, waiting for (prices) to drop more. They're going to see it drop and then they'll wait for it to drop some more," said Chuck Smiar, a Prudential Realtor in Escondido. "They all think it's going to go to zero, and they're going to be in for a surprise."

2008-04-08: March worst month yet for housing market
"I think we'll see it (better sales) because the pricing structure is going to force the issue," said Chuck Smiar, a real estate agent in Escondido. "There's a lot of buyers sitting on the fence waiting for the bottom. And I think if they don't jump in soon, they're going to be sorry."

--------

My comment from the first article at NC Times:
Tyrone wrote on Dec 11, 2007 10:14 PM:
" You should find the article at the Motley Fool title, "Down Isn't Up. Really", where the NAR gets ripped for their most recent claim about rising Pending Sales. But lets see, $590K median home price... so the median income in the North County is $150K+. Is that right? BWAHAHAHA Check out the ARM reset schedule. Prime/Alt-A/Neg-AM are next in the queue. North County will be hit hard over the next few years as these begin to reset. Lot of news today about credit and liquidity problems in the financial industry. Bumpy ride ahead... "

In for a Surprise, by Rich Toscano

Fence Sitters Will Be Sorry, by Rich Toscano

Here is the overlay of Chuck's comments with the San Diego HPI. A 'Smiar Campaign' if I ever saw one.

Vincent Bindi

Vincent Bindi, Broker / Bottom-Caller
You gotta give this guy credit; he consistently calls the bottom... every year. LOL



2007-02-26: South OC Real Estate Market looking better and better!
As we stated in a previous article several weeks ago ( Orange County market is Alive Again ), it is our opinion that the downward pricing is coming to an end here in south Orange County. If we haven't already reached the bottom of the downward pricing cycle, then we are very close to the bottom. How can I be so confident you may ask ? Well as they say, it's all in the numbers.

2008-04-04: Pricing bottom ‘getting close,’ South O.C. agent says
South Orange County real estate blogger Vincent Bindi reported recently what we’ve been hearing from a number of O.C. real estate agents: signs that the local housing market is starting to pick up a tic from the moribund doldrums that hit following the late-summer credit crunch. Specifically, many agents speak of rising escrows amid falling prices, with some bidding wars erupting.

Bindi, an agent with Keller-Williams Realty who regularly analyzes South County housing numbers, picked up that trend as well. He cites rising escrows and stable inventories, while projecting that prices will drop about 10% more.
----
Some random comments from the '08 article...

svvandal Says: April 4th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
“He tried calling the bottom in February 2007 and look what’s happened since then.”
ha ha! nice find! that is hilarious.
real estate is always a great investment when your income depends on rising markets and sales.

ACAmerica Says: April 4th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
shockg, stop your whining. The guy is lying. He should be arrested.
These types threats to America besides a threat to your pocket book.
The pigmen shall be hunted and strungup as all hunters do.

Mick Says: April 4th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
AS IF we are going to hit bottom soon and the start going back up! Ha!

Larry Murphy

Larry Murphy, President of SalesTraq
Genius of prognostication! Please tell us more!

2006-06-21: Analysts: Home prices won't fall
"Home prices are still going up in Las Vegas," said Larry Murphy, president of real estate monitoring firm SalesTraq. "That flies in the face of bubble theorists. There never was a bubble in Las Vegas, and there isn't one in the future."

"We have a bigger demand for new people than anyone else in the country," Bottfeld said.

"Prices have to continue to rise," Bottfeld said.

-----

Be sure to catch Larry here:
Crystal Ball Seminars
April 24, 2008 at the Texas Station Hotel & Casino,
Larry Murphy, President of Salestraq™

Margaret Kelly

Margaret Kelly, RE/Max CEO

It's a perfect time to buy!!!
Guaranteed Appreciation!!!

It's not gonna go that much lower!
Guaranteed Appreciation!!!
2007-Oct:

2006-08-23: Housing Market Returning to Normal
The U.S. housing market is returning to normalcy, RE/MAX International CEO Margaret Kelly said Aug. 23 on CNBC.
View the streaming video. (opens in small window)

2008-04-04: RE/MAX Realty Check

"We're seeing bright spots."

Kim Carpenter

Kim Carpenter (Kim Carp), Realtor
I wasn't going to add her to the Hall, not that she doesn't belong, but I relented because she's blond. This one is for you, Ace.

You can no longer see her blog at ActiveRain, but here is what started it all... (it's called, "Cached" information, baby; hat tip to the folks at Housing Panic--scooped again!!)

Will I cut my commision? No!.... Next question.
It should be that easy, but it isn't! My value as a REALTOR to you the home seller is well worth my professional fee. You the home seller, need to know the answer to my most frequently asked question. In your mind the question is "Will you lower your commission?" In my mind I hear, "Will you work just as hard representing me and my property even though I don't want to pay you what you, your skill and time is worth?"

Hmm... how would you feel if you go to work one day and hear these words from your boss, "Good morning, I have decided to decrease your pay for the next three months, its really no big deal." He goes on, "I know you are worth it, you are great at what you do, but I rather lower your pay...after all, it is MY business...At least you will make something!"

----

Realtor... Value??

Realtor... Professional??

The Housing Bust: a Statistical Portrait

I thought this article had some interesting statistics.

2008-04-04:
The Housing Bust: a Statistical Portrait

Percentage of all mortgages bundled into securities:
1994: 55.8 percent; 2007: 74.2 percent

Percentage of all subprime mortgages packaged into securities:
1994: 31.6 percent; 2007: 92.8 percent

Household debt as a percentage of disposable income:
1985: 74.9 percent; 2006: 137 percent

Share of mortgage originations by federally regulated savings institutions:
1987: 29.8 percent; 2006: 8 percent.

Share of mortgage originations by less -regulated brokers:
1987: 20 percent; 2006: 58 percent

Average annual rise in home-price value:
1990-1999: 3 percent; 2000-2006: 8.6 percent

Total estimated cost of the subprime crisis so far:
$150 billion to $500 billion.

Dottie Herman

Dottie Herman, NY Realtor
It was another Schiff smack-down!

(Housing Panic keeps beating me to the punch!)

Schiff 7, Realtors/Analysts 0

Herman:
"You're generalizing."

"I don't think anything is inflated."

"It's a supply and demand issue."
"I'm saying there is a cooling off, now."

Maybe she's right. There was a huge supply of easy money, and a huge demand for it.
2008-04-02: Fox News Schiff/Herman Smack-down