UCLA Anderson Forecast

Why does this group continue to be published? But if it's predicitions you want, here are 10 that are probably much more accurate than Anderson Forecast
America By 2012: 10 Dire Predictions

And follow the link for Mark Shniepp. Is this the kind of "expert" you want to follow?

2009-05-15: Home price fall nears bottom
Although 2009 will be a “throwaway year” for San Diego County, with double-digit unemployment, growing office vacancies and declining retail sales, local housing prices will hit bottom this fall, heralding an eventual recovery, UCLA's Anderson Forecast predicted in a report to be released today.

The Anderson Forecast, one of the state's most followed teams of economic analysts, predicted that housing prices will start rising steadily by the second quarter of the year, starting with a rebound in the price of existing single-family homes.

“When it is generally perceived that selling values have reached a bottom, sideline buyers will enter the market and conventional home sales will dominate the real estate recovery,” UCLA economist Mark Schniepp said. “Reported selling values for homes will reverse, slowly at first, and then rise more convincingly.”

Oh, yeah, Anderson Forecast?

2008-03-11: Experts' forecast sees no recession
UCLA's Anderson Forecast, which previously has been ahead of the curve in forecasting the downturn of the California housing market and the resulting decline in the economy, predicted yesterday that the state and nation would not fall into a recession.

“The data don't yet add up to a recession, and there is nothing to challenge the basic story of sluggishness that we have had for two years. Don't worry, be happy,” said Edward Leamer, director of the forecast, the state's best-known economic report.

Tell us more, WHORES!

2006-05-04: County home prices to flatten
With home sales sharply declining and values hitting a plateau, economists from the UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted yesterday that residential real estate prices in San Diego County will remain flat through 2011.

Ratcliff said no crash in prices is likely since the economy is so healthy. Generally, home prices fall only when large numbers of workers lose their jobs. [LIKE RIGHT NOW?]

“Home prices will plateau but not depreciate,” Ratcliff said. “Home prices only fall during recessions.”

Trampled Green Shoots

I like lists of things. Here is one from Jim Willie...

2009-05-15: Trampled Green Shoots
What follows is a laundry list that puts the USEconomy halfway between the Intensive Care Ward and the National Morgue:

• Endless War spending could subsidize every household in America with $1000 per year
• Income is trending down in the United States, England, and Japan
• US banks loan loss reserves are at a 20-year low while profound losses continue
• Of the nearly 9000 US banks, 1575 of them posted a Q1 loss
• Bernanke claims $2 trillion is needed by the big US banks, but they pass the Stress Test
• Municipal bonds and state finances are disasters, as they each appeal for USGovt aid
• A shocking 20% of US homeowners have loan balances greater than their home values
• Half of modified loans result in foreclosure within several months
• Jobs report for April revealed jobless level at 8.9% (massaged) and 15.8% (actual)
• Jobs Report for April included 66k worse revised job losses for March and February
• Continuing jobless claims at 6.56 million, grew 220k just last week
• CALPERS pension fund is insolvent, USGovt pension PBGC guarantee fund in deep deficit
• FDIC requested $500 billion in additional funds to cover bank failures (giant failure coming)
• Car sales still down 40% annually, with steep Japanese car sales declines also
• Detroit carmakers are closing down plants, with huge ripples through entire supply chain
• GM & Chrysler restructures are extremely likely to result in Chapter 7 liquidation in time
• GM burned $1.3B in Q1, burns $113 million per day, unable to transition to green cars
• Business investment down 38% in Q1, a RELIABLE LEADING INDICATOR
• Durable goods up 9% in Q1, but only after Q4 was pushed down from bank shock
• Inventory reduction not key, but rather inventory/sales ratio, since sales way down
• Economic contraction despite lower energy costs from crude oil, natural gas, gasoline
• Housing was false foundation since 2002, now in stubborn decline, the Giant Albatross
• Distress sales make up 40% of all housing sales, led by underwater sales and foreclosures
• Cramdown Law rejection means open season on foreclosures, more huge bank losses
• Banks admit that home loan are not modified after all, a revolving door to foreclosure
• Option ARMs, Jumbos, and Commercial mortgage defaults are ramping up fast
• Commercial mortgage bonds have $70-100 billion that cannot be refinanced, sure to default
• Staggering decline in consumer credit, -80% in Q3, minus $31.7B in Q4/Q1

Kern County: New 'Highest Ever'

Lets continue the Kern County NOD record tracking for Bakersfield Bubble.

(Old Highest Ever)

2009: Credit Cards and California

From Welcome to 2009, here is more supporting information for the downtown.

• * Credit Card Debt and Credit Contraction
• * Reduced State/Government Tax Revenue
  
  
  2009-05-10: Credit card losses
  Mr. Ward lost his job at a retail warehouse in April and so far has managed to make minimum payments on his credit card debt, which he estimates at $15,000 to $20,000. Asked if he thinks he will be able to pay off his balance, he said, “Not unless I win the lottery.”
  
  In the meantime, he said, “I’m just doing what I can.”
  
  Even if Mr. Ward can pay off his debts, experts predict that tens of thousands of Americans will not be able to, leaving a gaping hole at ailing banks still trying to recover from the housing bust.
  The bank stress test, released last Thursday, found that the nation’s 19 biggest banks could expect nearly $82.4 billion in credit card losses by the end of 2010 under what federal regulators called a “worst-case” economic situation.
  
  But if unemployment breaches 10 percent, as many economists predict, the rate of uncollectible balances at some banks could far exceed that level. At American Express, Citigroup, and J.P. Morgan Chase, one-fifth of the credit card balances are expected to go bad over the next 20 months, according to stress test results. At Bank of America and Wells Fargo, about a quarter of card loans are expected to sour.
  
  (hat tip to Exurban Nation)
  2009-May: CA State Revenue in April 2009
  * The State’s revenues continued to deteriorate in April. Total General Fund revenues were down $1.89 billion (-16%) from the latest estimates found in the 2009-10 Budget Act.
  * Personal income taxes were $1.06 billion below the estimate (-12.6%), corporate taxes were below the estimate by $831 million (-35.6%) and sales taxes lagged the estimate by $108 million (-19.9%).
  * Compared to April 2008, General Fund revenue in April 2009 was down $6.3 billion (-39%). The total for the three largest taxes was below 2008 levels by $6.3 billion (-40.3%). Sales taxes were $452 million lower (-50.9%) than last April, and personal income taxes were down $5.7 billion (-43.6%). Corporate taxes were $142 million below (-8.6%) April of 2008.
  * Sales tax collections year to date are short $327 million (-1.8%) from the 2009-10 Budget Act. Income taxes were $653 million lower (-1.7%) than expected, and corporate taxes were $788 million lower than expected (-9.5%). The State’s other revenue streams were $299 million below (-6.7%) the estimates.

ACORN

ACORN, housing.ACORN.org, ACORN Housing Services
And as the Housing Bubble enters the later stages of its destruction, a group has to insert its stupidity in hopes of saving house debtors. Fools, morons, monkeys, and jackasses... welcome, ACORN.
(hat tip to Sacramento Land(ing) )

2009-05-01: Protesters disrupt foreclosure auctions in Sacramento
Protesters disrupted several foreclosure auctions Tuesday on the Sacramento County Courthouse steps, winning a temporary cancellation of one and sending an unidentified auctioneer to the hospital with chest pains.

An ACORN official said the activist group simply wants more time for struggling borrowers it claims were often targeted for dangerous loans.

"Many of the sales that are happening now are around houses that could be saved by the (loan modification and refinance) plans starting to be implemented," said Amy Schur, California director of ACORN.

Goldman Suchs

Goldman Sachs
'Most Evil Entity in the Universe'

So now this piece-of-sh*t "bank" is trying to shut down a blog because they don't like it. But I guess that 'sticks and stones' don't apply when you have billions of taxpayer dollars and total control of the US Federal government (my opinion).

Here is the blog they're attempting to shut down:
Goldman Sachs - Evil Empire ('Evil Empire' is my edit & opinion)

Not to sound harsh, but I hope all employees of this company rot in hell. Is that too much?

Why do I feel that these "profits" (see below) belong to you and me?

2009-04-14: Goldman Sachs posts forecast-busting earnings
WASHINGTON (AFP) – US banking giant Goldman Sachs took markets by surprise, announcing forecast-busting quarterly earnings and a massive five-billion-dollar share issue to help repay government aid.

Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter net profit of 1.81 billion dollars with earnings per share of 3.39 dollars, sharply higher than 1.33 dollars per share forecast by most analysts.

The profit came on the back of revenues of 9.43 billion dollars in the first quarter, which ended on March 27.

2009-04-14: Jesse's Cafe Commentary:
Goldman Sachs Buries Losses to Beat the Estimates
The only thing getting blown away around here are the shareholders, taxpayers, and anyone else who buys what Wall Street in general is selling these days.
Goldman Sachs Releases Earnings After Hours

And Hanky-boy has been around here since Dec '07.

The Spin (Smith) Doctors, Part 2

Dr. Margaret Smith and Dr. Gary Smith
The Spin (Smith) Doctors, Part 1

Patrick.net had a little blog about this crazy couple, so I thought I'd link to it here. And recall that I gave them 'props' in October '07 (link above). Enjoy!
2009-04-14: Housing and Bad Assumptions

Fannie/Freddie Bonuses

They have got to be kidding!!

"give workers the incentive to stay in their jobs"

Here is some incentive. Lose your job and you won't be able to find another one. And you save $210M in a bankrupt company.

2009-04-03: Fannie, Freddie worker bonuses total $210M

WASHINGTON – Mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac plan to pay more than $210 million in bonuses through next year to give workers the incentive to stay in their jobs at the government-controlled companies.

The retention awards for more than 7,600 employees were disclosed in a letter from the companies' regulator released Friday by Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, the senior Republican on the Senate Finance Committee. The companies paid out nearly $51 million last year, are scheduled to make $146 million in payments this year and $13 million in 2010.

Is it working?

“Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to the bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalized, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to Communism. ”

Karl Marx, 1867

Welcome to 2009... again

Wow, we're only a month and a half into the year and most of the concerns I have are happening; perhaps you share some of them. I was going to post to all the economic news that supports the growing downturn, but there is so much it that it would be too big a task. But after seeing the article shown below, I chuckled at the title and the last statement the author made, considering my 2009 preview, Welcome to 2009.

Welcome to 2009, indeed!!!

2009-02-04: You Think 2008 Was Bad? Welcome to 2009
Eric Sprott and Sasha Solunac
By all accounts thus far, it's already been a pretty bad year... and we're only three weeks into it! If you will recall, 2008 was a pretty bad year for the banking sector. For example, the shares of Citigroup, Bank of America, and the Royal Bank of Scotland fell 77%, 66%, and 92%, respectively, in 2008. So far this year (remember, this is only three weeks) the same stocks are already down 50%, 55%, and 74%, respectively. Like we said, 2009 has already been a pretty bad year! For as bad as 2008 was, 2009 promises to be a whole lot worse. The problem isn't just the banking system anymore. The problem is the banking system and everything else. This year, the financial crisis of yesteryear is morphing into an altogether different animal. It's morphing into a financial crisis that has an economic crisis layered on top of it. In fact, to call the current environment an economic crisis is likely understating the situation. What we really have is a global economic catastrophe. One where weakness only begets more weakness, causing a vicious circle that is proving nigh impossible to reverse in spite of all the world's financial, economic, and political brain trust throwing everything they have, including the kitchen sink, at the problem.
...
We believe the problems of 2009 will make people yearn for 2008 all over again. In 2008 it was only savings and assets that got pillaged. In 2009 it will be jobs and incomes that get lost. In 2008 we had the Madoff Ponzi scheme, supposedly the largest fraud in history. In 2009 we have the US dollar Ponzi scheme - no contest. But to only pick on the dollar wouldn't be fair. As governments the world over take ever increasing roles in markets and the economy, all paper currencies will be at great risk, pillaging whatever savings people have left after 2008.

Welcome to 2009.
.

Christopher Warren

Christopher Warren, Loomis Wealth Solutions

Back to our regularly scheduled blog. BWAHAHAHAHA

2009-02-13: Fugitive's Safe Deposit Box Yields $400K in Gold
SACRAMENTO, CA - The mortgage fraud fugitive caught returning to the United States on Tuesday was carrying two safe deposit keys that led to more than $400,000 worth of gold coins.
...
During his week-long globetrotting adventure, federal authorities believe Warren stashed some of the proceeds from his illegal activity-- including as much as $5 million in gold.
...

2009-02-11: Calif. fraud suspect caught with $70,000 in boots
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — A suspect in a nationwide mortgage fraud scheme who fled the country was caught at the Canadian border with $70,000 stuffed in his cowboy boots and nearly $6,000 worth of platinum, authorities said Wednesday.

Christopher J. Warren, 26, was arrested early Wednesday while entering the United States at Buffalo, N.Y. After he disappeared Feb. 3, Warren was charged with conspiracy, fraud and conducting a continuing financial crime.

$100 Bills = Toilet Paper?

John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics provides some insights into inflation and a sign to indicate that hyperinflation has arrived. His advice to prepare: physical gold, hold assets outside of the US dollar, and have bartering goods (e.g. scotch).

Video: $100 Bills = Toilet Paper?
(click link or image; use right-mouse click to open in new window or tab)

Revolt Brews in California Counties

Not your everyday, normal recession, now is it?

2009-02-09: Revolt Brews in California Counties
Counties in California say they've had enough – and they aren't going to take it anymore.
In what amounts to a Boston Tea Party-style revolt against the state Capitol, they're threatening to withhold money.

Los Angeles is considering such an option. And Colusa County supervisors said they authorized payment delays for February.

"We didn't vote on it, because I don't think anybody wants to go to jail," Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann said.

Closer to home, Sacramento County is planning to file a lawsuit this week against the state and Controller John Chiang for withholding millions of dollars – much of it for social service programs.

"The Legislature authorized those expenditures, and (the controller) has decided to withhold it," said Susan Peters, chairwoman of the Sacramento County Board of Supervisors. "I believe it's possible other counties will be joining in the action."

Riverside County is looking at a similar lawsuit but plans to go one step further. It authorized going to court to relieve it from having to provide state-mandated services without state funding.
...

College/University Bubble...

...CHECK.

U.S. Housing Slump Has ‘Just Begun'

2009-02-05: U.S. Housing Slump Has ‘Just Begun,’
Says Forecaster Talbott

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Let’s say you own a $1 million home in Santa Barbara, California. The house seemed like a steal when you bought it with that adjustable-rate mortgage in 2005. You still love the white beaches and those yachts bobbing up and down in the harbor.

Then you awaken early one morning, troubled that your monthly payments will soon double. You go out to pick up your newspaper and see for-sale signs on five houses on the street. One identical to yours just sold for $500,000.

Are you going to pay the bank $1 million plus interest for your place? John R. Talbott, a former investment banker for Goldman Sachs, poses that hypothetical question in his latest book of financial prophesy, “Contagion.”

His answer: “I don’t think so,” he says. “If I’m right, then this housing decline has only just begun.”
...
Five More Years
Talbott’s latest predictions are sobering. The U.S. is only halfway through the total potential decline in housing prices, he says. Home values will continue to deteriorate for four to five years, he forecasts. Adjustable-rate mortgages issued in 2004 and 2005, for example, are only now resetting for the first time, he notes.

Bankers may “try to blame the crisis on poor Americans with bad credit histories, but that is not the real cause of the housing crisis,” he says. “The greatest home-price appreciations and the homes most subject to price readjustment are in America’s wealthiest cities and its glitziest neighborhoods.”
...
How did we get into this mess? Talbott blames everyone from average Americans who caught “the greed bug” to hedge funds and credit-default swaps. The single biggest error, he says, was for U.S. citizens to allow their national politicians to take large campaign contributions from big business and Wall Street -- a theme Kevin Phillips developed in “Bad Money.”

‘No Accident’
“This crisis was no accident,” he says. It began, in Talbot’s view, because the U.S. government was “co-opted” into deregulating the financial industry. Politicians were “paid to deregulate industry,” taking billions of dollars each year in campaign contributions.

His investment advice for this prolonged recession: Hang on to cash and invest in gold or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS. If he had to invest in stocks, he would put his money in China.

Crazy Carnes - Final Chapter(?)

Chandra & Michael Carnes, Loco House Buyers Debtors Renters
(Part 1)

The final chapter of the Carnes' has arrived... for this bubble, that is. They started their real estate adventure by "purchasing" a million dollar abode (5903 Mountain Hawk ) under the guidance of super realtor, Chris Nunez. When the benefits of interest only payments disappeared, they managed to sell at a small loss and "purchase" another house (1086 Elsbree Ln ). This, however, was a price too far, and a little over a year later they were forced to sell using a short sale. But here is an alternative thought: they purchased this house for its peak sales price and then months later put it back on the market. Hmmmmm...

Sale History
07/29/1994: $241,500
09/21/2007: $640,000 - peak sales price
Feb 2008 - back on market - why so soon??
01/23/2009: $525,000

Zillow: 1086 Elsbree Ln Windsor CA 95492
Price Paid: $640,000
Days on Zillow: 292
For Sale: $669,000 $659,000 $599,000 $540,000
Recently Sold: $525,000

On the sale price of $525K, the buyers are foolish. Unless they have money burn (which is what they're doing), they'll watch the value of this house fall to under $400K. My guess is that they sold a few years back and have been renting, waiting for that "bottom", but most people still don't grasp the magnitude of the economic problems this country is facing.

This story is probably repeated hundreds of thousands of times all over the country. What made the Carnes' story unique is that they openly discussed their insane spending spree on PBS--NOW Part 1, Part 2.

3552 Kendell Hill Dr
173-400-037-000
494 Quince St Windsor CA

California Unemployment

The rate at which things are unwinding is even shocking me. I watched gold and silver climb $50 and $0.50 today, respectively, and I'm wondering if this is a sign of the next leg down in the stock market. I say this because a number of forecasters have been calling for large drop in the market in February; the stars may be aligning for that event. I was even a little disappointed because I've been contemplating another purchase of both metals, but I'll probably do it anyway.

California unemployment rate jumps to 9.3 percent
By SAMANTHA YOUNG, Associated Press Writer
Friday, January 23, 2009

California's unemployment rate jumped to 9.3 percent in December, capping a tumultuous year of massive job losses and a housing slump that has struck most of the country.

The jobless rate announced Friday by the state Employment Development Department represents a jump from the 8.4 percent figure in November 2008.

Excluding farmworkers, California lost 78,200 jobs in December as employers sliced payrolls to deal with the slowing economy.

California's unemployment rate hasn't been at this level since January 1994, when the state was coming out of its recession in the early part of that decade, said Stephen Levy, senior economist for the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.

"California, like the nation, is in the midst of a terrible and deepening recession," Levy said. "We all expect the job losses to continue and unemployment rates to go higher."

Tsunami of Foreclosures to Come?

Ivy Zelman of Zelman and Associates predicts a tsunami of foreclosures yet to come over the next few years, and the only solution she recognizes is nationalization of the mortgage industry. Wouldn't that be a great solution, 'Comrade Blogger'.

Hope for Housing? Not a fu**ing chance.

California Property Tax Shortfalls

This is not surprising but it's interesting how fast things seem to be unwinding as we enter '09. The MSM is starting to write about the dwindling property taxes. If you look at the NODs posted previously, you can imagine it's only going to get much, much worse. This is gonna be ugly.

2009-01-10: Property tax assessments could plunge across California, worsening fiscal crisis
California's plunging property values have already clobbered homeowners, but now the trend is promising pain for struggling counties, cities and schools that rely upon property taxes — a downward shift unseen in decades.

"It's the first time since the Great Depression that we've had a negative growth in property taxes that are the heart and soul of local government services," said Paul McIntosh, executive director of the California State Association of Counties.
...
Santa Clara County's property tax roll is projected to show low-single-digit growth, down from 7 percent last year. But that could well change as a growing number of properties are evaluated, said longtime county Assessor Larry Stone. Final assessed values will not be sent to property owners until mid-May.

"I've never seen an economic downturn as significant and pervasive as this," Stone said.
...
Shrinking property tax funding "exacerbates the need dramatically," said Santa Clara County Supervisor Liz Kniss. Applications for safety net programs here have increased almost 40 percent in the last year, as county leaders wrestle with a $220 million budget shortfall.

Homeowners whose properties are devalued "may be getting a break on their tax bill," Kniss said. "But they're going to feel it in the health care arena, in schools, and in what we are able to provide in services for the homeless."

Kern County Canary

(purple line is '08, tan is '07)
Hat tip to Bakersfield Bubble. Yet another county in Kalifornya with increasing NODs, which will eventually lead to many more foreclosures. 2009 has only begun and the news is grim on retail sales, unemployment, taxes, commercial real estate, and housing, in general. Buckle up.