Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Welcome to 2009

Here are my concerns/predictions going into 2009. Similar concerns led me to exit the stock market last year, and I'm trying to position myself for '09, but it's difficult to find safety.

What am I missing?

Also, I added many links to '09 predictions.

  • Enter 2009 in a RECESSION
  • Credit Card Debt and Credit Contraction
  • Alt-A, Prime ARM, Option ARM resets coming
  • Increase in cost of borrowing money (eventually this must happen)
  • Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be given unlimited access to the U.S. Treasury
  • Continued House Foreclosures (6M-12M by 2012)
  • House prices falling, and must still fall 50% in some areas
  • College/University Costs (another bubble?)
  • Retail Sector Collapse
  • Commercial Real Estate Collapse
  • Manufacturing is Falling
  • Destruction of the United States’ domestic manufacturing capacity
  • Rising Unemployment
  • Rising Healthcare costs; medical care for unemployed; healthcare bubble?
  • Tax Increases (talk has begun)
  • Civil Unrest / Protests / Tax Revolution
  • Increase in Crime
  • Corporate Contraction
  • Reduced State/Government Tax Revenue
  • Existing US Debt is massive
  • Capitalism is dead, they are looting the treasury
  • State Debt and Municipal Bond Default
  • Hedge Fund Implosion (unknown dollar amount); CDS Risk
  • Rising Food Costs (deflation for other goods, but food is up)
  • Weakening US Dollar leading to Devaluation? Collapse?
  • Fed 'Quantitative Easing' (money dropped from helicopters)
  • Rampant Inflation Possible (long-term)
  • Intentional Devaluation of US Dollar
  • US Dollar as the worlds reserve currency at risk; Russia and China announcing they no longer consider it the worlds reserve currency; G20 meeting in '09 will be interesting
  • US Bond Market Collapse
  • Bank Failure Risks
  • Loss of Economic & Dollar Confidence
  • US Markets Likely to Drop 25-50%
  • Markets Crashing Around the World
  • Foreign Currencies in Trouble (e.g. Ruble)
  • Wars/Troops in Iraq and Afghanistan; billions spent every day
  • Turmoil in Pakistan and India
  • Iran Nuclear Capability
  • Gold/Silver to rise (Gold ~$2000, Silver ~$30)
  • In the not-too-distant future, 500 oz of silver will be able to buy the average house, and 1 oz of gold will be equivalent to 1 share of the DOW

Other Predictions:
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2009) (Market Ticker)
Our 2009 Predictions (Roger Wiegand)
10 Predictions for 2009 (Jason Hamlin)
Top Trends Of 2009 (Gerald Celente)
10 Worst Real Estate Markets of 2009
8 really, really scary predictions (Fortune)
Outlook '09: Forget Good, Economy Is Bad Or Ugly
What will 2009 bring for Gold?
10 worst real-estate markets for 2009
Golddrivers 2009 - Bullish outlook for gold (Eric Hommelberg)
2009 forecasts in a nutshell (Peter Cooper)
Prospects for 2009 (Jim Klinge)
Time to break out the crystal ball (golfer_X)
Gold and Silver in 2009 (James Turk)
2009 Real Estate Forecast: Troubles Spread
Forecast for 2009 (James Howard Kunstler)
The Year Ahead: 2009, Part 1 (Glen Allport)
2008 Year Review and Outlook For 2009 (Peter Grandich)
Outlook for 2009 (Monty Guild)
Ten Things We Might Expect to See in 2009 (Jesse's Cafe)
Predictions for 2009 (Jim Otis)
25 Predictions for 2009 (One Salient Oversight)
California 2009 Economic and Housing Forecast (Dr. Housing Bubble)
2009: Managing The Shift From Deflation Back To Inflation
Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession (John Mauldin)

Video/Audio Predictions:
Gerald Celente on GoldRadio - 12/23/2008
Marc Faber predicts economic disaster in 2009 part 1 of 2
60 Minutes: The Mortgage Meltdown - Coming ARM Resets
Analyst: One Third Of Banks Could Collapse In 2009
What is Gold Telling Us? (Oil/Gold Price Ratio is broken)
Marc Faber on CNBC - 12/29/2008
CNBC Healthcare Bubble Next to Collapse
Tech Outlook 2009
John Rubin - Gold 2009

Other Links:
‘Pay option’ mortgages could swell foreclosures (12/10/2008)
Fitch: Alt-A Mortgages Deteriorating More Rapidly than Expected (12/15/2008)
Option ARM: No one saw it Coming According to the Mainstream Media. The Alt-A and Pay Option ARM Tsunami Quickly Approaches. Charting the Option ARM and Alt-A Wave. (12/16/2008)
Quantitative Easing: FAIL (Denninger, 12/24/2008)
Russia Devalues Ruble for Third Time in Week (12/24/2008)
Bleak economic picture emerges from new data (12/24/2008)
Year Stained By Insolvency (12/26/2008)
The deflation that many analysts describe is actually a systemic liquidation that will be difficult to reverse, a necessary step by producing the critically important inflation. ... THE ENTIRE MORTGAGE INDUSTRY, COMPLETE WITH MILLIONS OF HOME MORTGAGES, AND PERHAPS COMMERCIAL MORTGAGES, WILL BE NATIONALIZED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS.
Dollar Devaluation To Fix The Great Recession (12/09/2008)
Ponzi Nation (12/26/2008)
Retail Sales Plummet (12/26/2008)
Consumers fall deeper into debt (12/23) Consumers, not PEOPLE.
U.S. Home Resales Fall (12/23/2008)
China to begin yuan-settlement trials (12/25/2008)
China to allow freer yuan trades (12/25/2008)
U.S. debt approaches insolvency (12/19/2008)
US urging calm over possible Pakistan troop moves (12/26/2008)
Retailers Brace for Major Change (12/23/2008)
Hospitals Ill from Bad Debt (12/27/2008)
Getting Excited about 2009
The Global Economic Crisis - Bad and Worsening
2008: A Year in Review, Part I (Daily Reckoning)
2008: A Year in Review, Part II
Is recession behind spike in bank robberies?

Economy Down, Theft Up
False Diagnosis of Deflation (Jim Willie)
Manufacturing index drops to 28-year low
Cash-poor states eager for a piece of Obama plan
44 States Face Huge Budget Shortfalls
U.S. governors seek $1 trillion federal assistance
California governor offers new budget fix plan
Is Social Security a Ponzi Scheme?
Late December Economic Rant -Roger Mason
How Deflation Creates Hyperinflation
*****Ten Major Threats Facing The Dollar in 2009*****
Dollar, Treasuries, Gold, Silver, Oil, Banks, Home Inventories/Delinquencies, Vacancies
Legislature to consider college tuition freeze


tom12008 said...

This looks good. I would expand on home and food insecurity to include medical care insecurity. If job losses increase, how many of the newly jobless will keep COBRA coverage? Even the MSM reports now and then on retirees and families choosing between decent food and medication. Visits to food pantries are up and I suppose visits to free and low-cost health facilities and emergency rooms will increase as well.

I really like that you mention education. I'm worried about this one for many reasons. Is there an education bubble? I think so. I'm trying to figure out who the "safe investors" and the present and future FB's are among students.

I've also noticed that there has been near-silence in mainstream outlets about the next round of ARM resets. Why do you think that is?

All in all, it's a great list. Happy Christmas!


Tyrone said...

Several weeks ago there was fairly good coverage on the ARMs. It was like a flurry of attention, but it has subsided a bit. I'll try to find those links and post them. Dr. HB consistently posts on those upcoming bombs.

Good point on medical and healthcare coverage. I got hit for higher costs, again. I'll add it to the list.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Tyrone

Spotted your link to me and added you to my blog index

Thanks for the link

Happy Posting

Merry Christmas

Tyrone said...

No problem, Jim. I've been reading your blog for a long time, but I was always accessing it from BMIT. Finally got off my lazy butt and put the link here.

And Merry Christmas to you.