Gary Watts, Mission Viejo RealtorI'll have what this guy is having. Watts Site
Article 12: REALTORS® shall be careful at all times to present a true picture in their advertising and representations to the public.
And now... the worst apology ever. (see 2008-06-23)
2005-05-15: High hopes for housing
2005-12-01: Why the Housing Bubble is Bogus
(Alternate title: Why Gary Watts should STFU)
2007-02-06: Watts forecasts 7% gain in O.C. house prices
Although his 2006 forecast was overly optimistic, Watts remains confident that local house prices this year will increase 7 percent and that condo prices will go up about 4 percent.
"This will be, I think, a pivotal year," Watts said in a telephone interview. "If the housing correction is behind us, we'll be in pretty good shape. We've weathered the worst."
2008-01-04: Realtor Watts eyes pent-up housing demand
Eyeball: What’s your outlook for the O.C. housing market?
Gary: My forecast for 2007 appears to have been too rosy! ... I was surprised by the financial crisis – especially since subprime makes up only 5% of the entire loan market while the Alt-A market (better than sub-prime but less than prime) makes up only 8%. 2008 could be a surprising year.
Eyeball: Chances we’ll see a bottom in 2008?
Gary: The first question I ask my Realtor audience is: “how many of you have qualified buyers waiting to buy?” Almost everyone’s hand shoots up immediately. This is called pent-up demand. As soon as the “fence-sitting” buyers begin to believe the bottom is near, they will once again enter the housing market. Not in a big way, but a way that will show a beginning trend towards a normal market.
Eyeball: What might be the housing surprise we’ll be talking about a year from now?
Gary: The media reporting stories of how the 2008 buyers made a great buy in the Southern California real estate market! (This, I assume, will come after the stories about the 30%+ drops in price.)
Apologies with excuses. Fu** you, Gary.
2008-06-23: Real estate booster apologizes for misreading crystal ball
“Here it is, four decades of forecasting, and I couldn’t believe I got it wrong,” Watts said after delivering his 2008 Mid-Year Economic Report to the Orange County Association of Realtors in Irvine. Watts blamed his misdiagnosis on a failure to account for Wall Street’s impact on the mortgage market.
“I apologize for not knowing what Wall Street did to our mortgages,” Watts told about 360 attendees during the associations annual membership meeting at the Irvine Marriott. “I had no idea how Wall Street restructured these loans.”
2006-08-13: Gary Watts and the Incredible Logic Shrinking Machine
4 comments:
Another great pick very deserving of being here.
A few comments about this:
Gary: The first question I ask my Realtor audience is: “how many of you have qualified buyers waiting to buy?” Almost everyone’s hand shoots up immediately. This is called pent-up demand. As soon as the “fence-sitting” buyers begin to believe the bottom is near, they will once again enter the housing market. Not in a big way, but a way that will show a beginning trend towards a normal market.
#1 - What determines "qualified" buyers? Clearly these Realt-whores do not have any idea that lending standards have started to return after a multi-year hiatus. Lenders are VERY reticent to lend without some down payments so the buyers have some skin the game this time around.
#2 - At some point when buyers "believe the bottom is near" - in no small part due to the constant positive propaganda (LIES!!) still consistently emanating from these admittedly clueless Realt-whores - many of these ill-informed "fence-sitters" will foolishly buy; along with others - creating a temporary bounce or stabilization in prices, followed by another HUGE decline that will imperil yet another group of lemmings that believe these shameless Realt-whores.
When prices actually DO bottom - something many many years away - virtually no one will be talking, blogging or buying real estate - it will be a taboo subject after burning so many folks....
Almost none of these people seem to understand the simple concept of THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH CURRENT REAL ESTATE -
THAT BEING THE STILL GROSSLY EXCESSIVE PRICES!!!!!
Amen, Jeff.
Did anyone check this arsehole's listings. He has a 2,800 "beach" house listed for $1,799,000 or $642.50 per square foot!
LOL! This scammer must believe his own BS because he lies when he says that this is a "beach" house. It's NOT, it's sits across the street from the beach and because of the houses that are in fact "beach" houses you cannot see the ocean let alone the beach.
I was (un)fortunate enough to hear one of his lectures. Wow, if you believe the 80/20 rule, it was in full swing that day. People were listening to him as if he had a crystal ball , predicting the future. I don't know if he is a true economist, but he sure had everyone fooled. I sold all my properties in late 2004 believing there was no way for properties to continue to climb. I used all my knowledge(economics major UCLA) , used all fundamentals, and on paper, there was no way to predict the run from late 2004 to 2006. But alas, once again the 80/20 rule ruled. I saw through the smoke, but many did not. And now we have a huge mess. This is similar to what happened to gold in the early 1980's, it went up due to a false market and has taken 20 years to reach the same levels. It might not take 20 years for R.E. to get back to 2005-06 levels, but 10plus for sure. What created this crazy market was the EZ money!!!! That will never happen again.
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