Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Stephanie and Matt Valdez

Stephanie and Matt Valdez, "Buyers"
I debated whether or not to put these two in the Hall of Shame®, and concluded they belonged. When I first saw the 60 Minutes video and listened to them, I couldn't believe my ears. I understand their decision, but to announce it to the world on National TV? Crazy! Shameful! And I've always said that buyers contributed to this bubble by making a choice to overpay for homes, assuming double-digit appreciation, forever.

Stephanie, Matt, you didn't buy because "Suzanne researched it", did you? LOL I just wonder how much pressure she put on Mat because they would be "priced out forever if they didn't buy NOW".

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Scot Moran

Scot Moran, Phoenix Realtor, Flag Realty Group

All aboard the Investor Express! "Chew-chew"
Watch each house chew your equity away.

Spikey Hair... check.
Hummer... check.
Gold Bling... check.
Advice to buyers: "Get into the real estate market" ... check.

2008-01-05: Now is the time to invest your money
* Video on the right at the link above.
Arizona Database: Open complaints - 6

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Fannie Mae

Fannie Mae
We exist to help people those that house people.

Now introducting Fannie Mae Mozilo.

: GSE Loan Limit And A Shift In Fannie Mae's Mission?

Revision: January 18, 2008
“We exist to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has a federal charter and operates in America’s secondary mortgage market to ensure that mortgage bankers and other lenders have enough funds to lend to home buyers at low rates. Our job is to help those who house America.”

“Our public mission, and our defining goal, is to help more families achieve the American Dream of homeownership. We do that by providing financial products and services that make it possible for low-, moderate-, and middle-income families to buy homes of their own.”

Friday, January 25, 2008

Melonie Griffiths-Evans

Melonie Griffiths-Evans, Subprime Victim
Melonie is not just a Subprime Victim; she's also a mother of 3 and a REALTOR!!

2008-01-24: Bad borrowers send rest of us to poorhouse
In December 2004, with no down payment and working as an assistant teacher, she signed on the dotted line for a $470,000 subprime mortgage on a house in Dorchester.

At one point during our conversation yesterday, Griffiths-Evans screamed that she was going to get a taxpayer bailout “whether you like it or not! We’re gonna get help from the legislators and the people in power to help us!”

Borrowers like Griffiths-Evans insist that they had “no options.” Apparently the “I can’t afford a house payment that doubles in 18 months! I’m not signing this!” option never occurred to them.

2008-01-25: No tears for borrower
Dreaming about having something nicer is the American way. Demanding that other people pay for it is not. - - - BRAVO!!!!!

Radio Clip
Picketing at her house
Cystal Realty
* Hmmmm... they only have realtors of one color. Reverse discrimination!

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Danielle Babb

DOCTOR Danielle Babb, Real Estate Investor/Analyst
Another real estate analyst bites the dust against Peter Schiff.

2007-11-20: Peter Schiff vs Danielle
"Investors may be increasing demand in the housing market." ???
"We've got maybe 5% more to go in some hot foreclosure areas." ???
"Prices will start to stabilize in the spring." ???

Schiff 4, Realtors/Analysts 0

2008-01-24: Best and Worst Places to Buy a House
As a real estate investor and analyst, it's my job to provide buyers with qualified information (???) on where to buy -- and where to stay away from. Here are my thoughts for 2008 based on the indicators noted above. The Top Places to Buy:
- Killeen, Round Rock, Austin, Texas
- Mission Viejo, California
- Palm Beach, Florida
- Las Vegas, Nevada

Is she out of her mind? I wonder if she still thinks prices will stabilize in the spring? From her November prediction, did we only drop another 5%? Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Kim Freeman

Kim Freeman, Buyer / Flipper
Another seemingly bleeding heart story about a couple losing their home. But the real story is that of a couple taking on crippling debt, in the hopes of cashing in with a flip, later on. Remember, buyers helped fill this bubble. Now what?... Her marriage is broken, and she lost her job. At the age of 46, she is basically starting over. She said, "Everything about this house was bad timing." Hmmmm... Realtards would advise you against trying to time the real estate market. But then again, for Realtards, it's always a great time to buy. One thing to note from the story: what exactly did they do with $110K in profit from the sale of their first home??? (I hope they didn't use any of that money for "cosmetic" reasons)

13272 Charloma Dr, Tustin, CA
Sale History
05/13/2004: $703,000
08/16/2000: $258,000

: Humbled homesellers

Kim Freeman calls her tale a "riches to rags story." At the center of it is a house in Tustin her husband calls "the albatross." It's a story about bad timing and bad luck – a tale of woe that many 2007 home sellers are telling after enduring the slowest housing market in at least two decades.

The good news here is that the Freemans' house is in escrow after 2 1/2 years on the market. The bad news is they've had to cut their price to $563,000 – $226,000 below their original asking price and $140,000 less than what they paid for the three-bedroom ranch house.

Things seemed rosy when Bill and Kim Freeman bought their Charloma Drive house with the big back yard in the spring of 2004. They had just sold a home in Las Flores for a $180,000 profit after owning it for less than a year. Their plan was to do the same with the Tustin home, reselling at a higher price in less than three years.

They saw the three-bedroom home on a corner lot, noticed it had a remodeled kitchen and pounced before another buyer could get it. They paid $703,000. In retrospect, she said, they probably moved too fast. They put $70,000 down – all that remained from their $180,000 profit from the Las Flores house after taxes and paying off debts. (Where did the $110K go?)

They put the home up for sale for $789,000 in the spring of 2005. They got an offer for $750,000. Acting on their agent's advice, they rejected it. In March 2007, the couple rejected a $675,000 offer because it would have meant losing their down payment, plus an additional $10,000 in cash they'd have to pay at closing.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Chris Nunez

Chris Nunez, CPS Real Estate
Chris is a super realtor in Santa Rosa, CA. He is renowned for pushing interest-only loans on people that CANNOT afford them. Once these loans reset, he's going to have some disappointed customers, such the Carnes family that took out a $700K, interest only loan to purchase a home they "had to have"--household income: $100K. And as he tells his clients, "I eat beans like you in the morning." Watch the video and enjoy!
Video: Past Due & Pay Day (video at YouTube)
Transcript: Past Due & Pay Day
Super Realtor, Chris Nunez is selling his $1M home!
Price Paid: $1,061,312

3646 Bellagio Ct
Santa Rosa, CA, 95404
5 Ba: 5 3761 sqft.
MLS#: 20730428
Price: $1,230,000 <---- Dream on!!!

2007-11-11: reduced $1,200,000 $30K ain't gonna move it.
2008-01-11: SOLD $1,100,000
(Purchase Price) - (Selling Price) = +$39K
Hey, did he walk away with a profit???

He held the house since Sep '04--a total of 40 months.
$39K/40 = $975 per month

Do you think the payment on his million dollar, interest-only loan, McMansion was $975/month? I'd say he burned around $100K owning renting his McMansion. I will say this... he got very lucky to find a big enough fool to overpay for this POS house.

from the transcript...
Question: Do you ever worry that you're talking people into homes that they ultimately can't handle?
CHRIS NUÑEZ: No. Not at all because they wouldn't have qualified for the loan. So they can actually handle the payments, you know? Whether it's a five year or a 30 year loan, they have to qualify first.

Can you believe how naive that response is? If you watch the PBS video, you'll hear Chris say he "purchased" this home with an interest-only loan. Vato, interest-only loans DO NOT WORK for the average person!
1194 Pedroncelli Dr

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Steven Thomas

Steven Thomas, Aliso Viejo Realtor
Did Realtors receive instruction on knowing when the bottom is reached? Homes don't go to the highest bidder? And OMG, if you don't buy in 2008 you're going to miss the PRIME TIME to buy!

This is a compilation of this report dated 12-27-2007 and 01-10-2008; since he overwrites the same-named file, the previous ones are lost, but a well-chosen google search can extract the old ones.
2008-01-10: Orange County Market Time Report
What can we expect in 2008?
...we will most likely see a change to the conforming loan limit from $417,000 to $625,000,...
Basic Econ 101 tells us that prices will come down. But, let’s not forget, that homes are not basic commodities bought and sold on eBay to the highest bidder. Instead, there is stickiness to pricing because homeowners have emotional ties to their homes that transcend basic economics. (Ummm... so do we use Econ 101, or not?)

Buyers, what to do?
Nobody knows it’s a bottom until well after the bottom...
So, it is not JUST about price.
...the market will bottom out sometime in 2008 and the interest rates will drop to historically low levels. It will prove to be the best time to buy BUT very few buyers will have the courage to take the plunge until they know for a fact that the market has bottomed out. Unfortunately, nobody rings a bell at the bottom of the market. Instead,
buyers must wait for signs that the market has officially improved, when all the buyers get off of the fence and buy. The conditions will not be prime at that point in time. The prime time to buy will be in 2008, with many choices, a lot of pressure on pricing, the absolute best interest rates and the knowledge that in time, the market will appreciate beyond the highs reached in 2006.
Happy New Year!
Steven Thomas, RE/MAX Real Estate Services, President
"Outstanding Agents! Outstanding Results!"

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Beazer Homes

Beazer Homes, Home Builder / Dream Maker
Notice they are a "home" builder, rather than a "house" builder.

2008-01-12: Stock slump the latest of Beazer's woes
Some warned in 2003 that builders were selling too many homes. Too many unqualified buyers were getting mortgages with ballooning interest rates. And housing prices were rising too fast, too high.

But Beazer Homes USA, one of the largest and most aggressive builders in Charlotte, didn't see it that way.

"The so-called housing `bubble' is, in fact, a myth," it said in its fiscal 2002 annual report. "While many continue to wait for this bubble to burst, we agree with most respected economists that there has never been a national housing bubble in the U.S."

This week, shares of Beazer Homes USA dropped below $5, more than 90 percent off its all-time high just two years ago. Stock swoons in the housing industry were fueled by KB Home's lackluster earnings, followed by mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp.'s report on rising loan delinquencies and foreclosures.

Beazer was aggressively helping buyers with down payments in some Charlotte-area starter-home subdivisions. It helped pay the first two years of home loans, an arrangement called a buydown. And it arranged loans that some buyers couldn't afford. The Observer found financial documents provided by four families showed their loans were arranged by Beazer Mortgage based on misstated debts or income. Knowingly falsifying that information is a federal crime.
2007-12-12: SEC Requires Beazer to Disclose Mortgage Details Any questions?

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Cynthia Szukala

Cynthia Szukala, Buyer / Home-ATM
I somehow missed this story back from Oct. '07.

2007-Oct: Sub-Prime Lending Pain
But Boyle Heights resident Cynthia Szukala faces a more immediate sub-prime nightmare: foreclosure and the loss of the home she bought with her husband Raymond in 1998. Szukala, 59, signed on for a loan in 2005 to refinance the property on Morrow Place in Boyle Heights.
The Szukalas had already refinanced in 2004 with a conventional loan.
Szukala says the broker “took advantage. Not only was my husband a senior citizen. He was dying.”

The part of the story that Cynthia failed to communicate was that...

In nine years time, the couple had refinanced their loan not once or twice as Cynthia indicated, but seven times. They had been living off equity for years, borrowing nearly $300,000 in all (about $31,300 per year).

2007-Oct: Mortgage Meltdown 2007: Local Stories

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Ray Karpe

Ray Karpe, Bakersfield REALTOR®, President, Broker
"Karpe Diem", I guess.
(hat tip, Jeff)

2008-01-01: Outlook unclear for new year
"I don't think it's as lousy as everyone puts on," said Ray Karpe, the immediate past president of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors, a local trade group.

Buyers benefit from continuing low interest rates and the variety of houses for sale, he said. And, he predicted, home prices will reverse direction, and start an incremental climb.

"I think home prices, home values, will creep up," Karpe said.

2007-10-10: Central Valley home price drops
Central Valley cities are among the most likely in the nation to see further home price drops within the next two years, according to figures compiled by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., the Walnut Creek-based subsidiary of PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI).

Here’s PMI’s list of Central Valley cities’ likelihood of price declines by this time in 2009:
Bakersfield: 56.4 percent LOL
• Chico: 41.8 percent
• Fresno: 48.1 percent
• Hanford-Corcoran: 41.2 percent
• Madera: 42.1 percent
• Merced: 59.3 percent
• Modesto: 57.0 percent
• Sacramento: 52.2 percent
• Stockton: 62.3 percent

2008-Jan: Median property values sink another $10,000
Care to revise your statement, Ray?

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Roxie Chilcott

Roxie Chilcott; former President, S.D. Chapter, CA Association of Mortgage Brokers
This industry is so sick. She said most borrowers were going for 100% financing. And most mortgage brokers, Roxie, were pushing subprime loans. Why? You know the an$wer. I like how the CAMB newsletter talks about their 'fiduciary responsibility". And they are "guilty of making phenomenal profits at reasonable risks." Maybe it's time for some mortgage broker lawsuits.
LOL... Reasonable risks? Is she kidding? Later she writes, "Talking with many of my long term peers in the industry, we all agree that the current retraction on the Secondary Market is the quickest, sharpest and most severe we’ve seen in 30+ years in the industry."

2002-Dec: The Hunt for Bucks
“You name it, we’ve got it,” says Roxie Chilcott, president of the San Diego chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers. “If the borrower has got a credible track record in their credit history or employment history; where there’s a will, there’s a way.”

Most borrowers, Chilcott says, are going for the 100 percent financing programs. Even here, several options and a multitude of ways to qualify are available. “The loan broker is there to hold your hand,” Chilcott says. “They don’t get paid until the job closes.” (Really? They hold your hand and HELP people?)

: Home buying is in the air
Chilcott brokers mostly sub-prime loans, money lent to individuals with less-than-shining credit reports. "It doesn't' matter who you are. Even the sub-prime loans are in the (6 percent range)," she said. Investors who buy portfolios of mortgage loans are getting better returns due to increased volume so they'll allow lower interest rates, Chilcott said. Also, many sub-prime borrowers are just barely classified that way, she noted.

2007-April: San Diego Subprime Fallout
“We were pricing ourselves right out of the ability for even the upper end of incomes to be able to afford a home,” says Chilcott. The market developed with the idea that 20 percent per year appreciation was built in, Chilcott says, which made 100 percent loans possible. “They could make a 100 percent loan today and in six months they were 80 percent loan-to-value,” she says.

As we move forward, I’m not sure we will ever again have the 100 percent financing,” she explains. “What lenders are doing is getting back to real underwriting and investments that make sense.” (What a novel idea: ensure loans can be payed back.)

2007-09-20: Real estate revival? Not soon
"Roxie Chilcott, a mortgage broker at Acoustic Home Loans in San Diego,..."
Acoustic? Really? Subprime Lender Acoustic Goes Under

2007-12-30: Weighed Down
Roxie Chilcott, former president of the San Diego chapter of the California Mortgage Brokers Association, said the real estate market is beginning to show some signs of life after being moribund for a number of months.

“Phones are beginning to ring again,” said Chilcott, a mortgage loan originator at Bank of America. “People are realizing that if they're going to buy, now is the time, because mortgage rates are only going to go up despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and home prices are going to start to churn again by late spring.” LOL-LOL-LOL

She believes prices will continue to fall until May or June and then will bounce along the bottom for another three to six months.
Realtors and brokers love to play this card: "mortgage rates are only going to go up". There was a time when mortgage rates were double-digit. If they go up it's just going to drag prices that much further down. Here is a simple way to defeat higher mortgage rates:
- Use a larger down payment
- Pay your home off in 15 years
I hope this turns out to be true: Death of a Salesman 2007: The Mortgage Broker Profession Goes Away

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Tom Adkins

Tom Adkins, REMAX
Tom is known for his goldilocks appearance and hyping the real estate market beyond reason. He gets inducted into the Hall of Shame® for his embarrassing appearance on Fox News with Peter Schiff. Tom, you're not anywhere close to being in Peter's league, you moron. My guess is that he hasn't sold real estate in a long time, if at all.

This guy just won't go away. LOL
2008-01-08: Tom Adkins is caught lying ON AIR!!
2008-01-08: Tom Adkins is pwned by Peter Schiff

Famous last words from the video, dated Dec 31, 2006:
"You're going to see prices go up about 10%."
"Prices are already on the way back up, now."
"We have no inflation right now."
"Interest only mortgages... there is nothing wrong with them."

2007-12-26: Home prices post record decline
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home prices fell 6.7 percent in October, compared with a year ago, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-city home-price index. It was the largest drop recorded since the index began in 1987.

"This is just the beginning," said Peter Schiff, a Darien, Conn.-based investment adviser known for his bearish views of the housing market. "Pressure is there for much, much lower prices."

2007-12-13: Wholesale Inflation Surges, but Sales Up Thursday
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A record jump in gasoline prices pushed up wholesale inflation in November at the fastest pace in more than three decades, while retail sales showed unexpected strength.

The Labor Department said Thursday that wholesale prices rose by 3.2 percent last month, the biggest increase in 34 years. The jump reflected a 34.8 percent surge in gasoline prices. Outside of energy and food, core inflation posted a 0.4 percent jump, double what was expected.

Monday, January 7, 2008

James Thorner

James Thorner, Times Staff Writer
Time to induct someone from the MSM.

Thorner Blog: (Un)Real Estate
"Having recently bought and sold a house here, Thorner has shown his insights are more than theory. He's got the burn marks to prove it."

2007-11-05: A prime time to buy a house?
So is it time to start hunting for bargains? Now is a good time to shop for a house, if not to buy.
Some prices are probably flirting with the bottom: Houses repossessed by the bank.

2008-01-07: Sharks await big meal but may go away hungry
Prices appreciated fairly normally until the insane run-up between 2004 and 2006. Inasmuch as speculators drove up the median home price to its $239,600 peak in June 2006, we need to see a correction. We've already seen part of that correction.

But don't expect a steal of a deal on every block. Subtract the speculators and inflation runs about 3 percent a year. Incomes have climbed over the years in Tampa, albeit slowly. Tens of thousands of people are locked into homes bought at boomtown prices. They won't give away their money without a struggle.

I have a name for house hunters counting on a return to 1998 prices: lifelong renters.
Well, I have a name for someone that bought during the bubble: Priced In Forever. Or until they walk away, in which case, there won't be much a struggle over their money--it will simply be gone. Here is the home Jimmy (aka Tiny-Trump) bought and sold:
23562 Pine Lake St, Land O Lakes, FL
At the bottom, this thing shouldn't be worth more than $120K, and could very well get back to $90K.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Connie De Groot

Connie De Groot, Beverly Hills Realtor
As Realtors go, you could do a lot worse than Connie, but after seeing her debate the housing bottom with Peter Schiff, I had to add her to the Hall.

Degroot vs Schiff
"We're coming out of a time with low supply and high demand."
* She forgot the part about totally loose lending standards.

Connie, Oh, nooo! Not again!
2007-01-02: Round 2

From Curbed LA: We Love Connie De Groot

Connie has dedicated following at YouTube: conniedegroot
A comment I left at one of the videos was:
The people buying in 90210 are "probably" a bit different from your average joe. People buying multi-million dollar homes aren't dabbling into sumbprime/alt-a/prime/option ARMs.
"Offend the seller"? Who gives a fu** about offending sellers. Realtors are ignorant.

Connie's Blog:
September 12, 2007

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Ashley Long

Ashley Long, Home Buyer / Knife Catcher
People have a lot to learn about this housing debacle. Just because prices have dropped 20-30% from the PEAK in some areas, does not mean they won't fall another 20-30%. Keep in mind the peaks quite often contain an inherent amount of fraud.

2008-01-01: Forecasters see end to Sonoma County housing woes
Sonoma County’s slumping real estate market should finally hit bottom in late 2008, ending a three-year slide that has already wiped out almost $120,000 in value from the typical home.

In Windsor, Ashley Long paid $470,000 earlier this month for a four-bedroom house that was worth $630,000 near the market’s peak. The sellers, which originally listed the home at $525,000, cut the price twice to attract a buyer.“

Six months ago this kind of house wasn’t out there for her,” said Long’s agent, Tim Souza, with Century 21 Alliance in Windsor. A first-time home buyer, Long looked at more than 50 houses over three months, trying to find the nicest house for the lowest price. She didn’t hesitate, however, to make an offer on the Windsor house after Souza spotted the latest price reduction, yet Long still went under the seller’s amount. “I got a pretty good deal. I know this is a low market and the house is worth more than that,” Long said.

To lower her monthly mortgage payment, Long made a 10 percent down payment to lock in a low interest rate on a 30-year loan.“It’s the only time I’m going to be able to afford to buy in Sonoma County,” she said. “I can’t imagine it going down a lot lower, and eventually it has to come back up. I don’t want to gamble.”
Lets see if she got a "pretty good deal".

Here is the house:
7108 Hastings Pl
Windsor, CA
4 beds, 3.0 baths, 2,032 sq ft, APN: 163-120-052-000
Sale History:
03/13/1998: $222,500

To arrive at a current price of $470,000, the house appreciated ~7.8% per year (using 10 years). Is this a good deal?
At 5% Appreciation: $362,000
At 3% Appreciation: $300,000

Did she get a good deal? I don't think so, but perhaps her gamble will pay off.