I am not a gold bug. What I am is someone that is averse to risk. The risk I detected several years ago was in the very thing that was supposed to be our store of "wealth"... the US Dollar. The only question I'm asking myself right now is, "How much more?"
2010-09-07: Strapping In For The Big Move
Now that expectations for Gold at very significant prices are being offered by various rational sources, there is one thing you can be sure of. That one thing is $1650.
I am getting many emails asking how it is possible for the gold price to reach $1650 by early January.
I suspect these are far out in time, out of the money call option buyers that have done exactly what I have warned against. That is the using of options with an investment outlook.
Options are speculations that you never hold past the half way to expiry point, but instead switch to further out months if you believe in what you are doing.
Those that pre-offer gold cannot trade it at $1650 in January because of the short time versus the big moves. They clearly have never experienced the gold run in late 1979 and early 1980.
I will stand with what I have said for nearly 10 years. Gold will trade at $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011. That never made me want to buy expensive in time call options.
It has given me the courage to invest in gold without margin both in shares and bullion.
There is no doubt in my mind that $1650 will occur in early 2011. I have told you that Martin Armstrong, a master timer, feels that gold will trade higher and face a reaction in middle to late June of 2011.
The gold banks are throwing blocks to the price as we approach $1262. This is a major waste of time and money as gold is going to and through that price. The only argument is whether gold will hit $1650 in January 2011 or $3000-$5000 in June 2011.
Do you have any idea how much money has been made by those that bought gold modestly and in cash only on every reaction and sold into the rhino horns? It sounded stupid when I suggested this tactic for the wannabe traders.
I ran 22,000 long gold contracts in the New York and London markets in 1978 to 1980. Back then that was a big number. Today if I have a conviction, I simply play with everything I have and screw credit. The only credit I would use as a pro trader is options.
Those of you who follow me closely know that I am NOT kidding. This is the time when PRICE and TIME meet each other.
This is the time now as it was in 1979 that I went throttle to floor.
This is the time now as it was in 1979 that I am committing 100% of all the cash I can accumulate to what I believe in.
This is the time when all I have planned for is falling into place for the final and enormous pay day. However, I will not and you should not violate discipline, as I have always tried to teach you.
Option are never held past 50% of time left when you purchased them.
If I am wrong about gold at $1650 on or before 14/01/11 it only means gold will trade much higher than $1650 five months later.
As far as being long and wrong, that is something I definitely am not.