Trampled Green Shoots

I like lists of things. Here is one from Jim Willie...

2009-05-15: Trampled Green Shoots
What follows is a laundry list that puts the USEconomy halfway between the Intensive Care Ward and the National Morgue:

• Endless War spending could subsidize every household in America with $1000 per year
• Income is trending down in the United States, England, and Japan
• US banks loan loss reserves are at a 20-year low while profound losses continue
• Of the nearly 9000 US banks, 1575 of them posted a Q1 loss
• Bernanke claims $2 trillion is needed by the big US banks, but they pass the Stress Test
• Municipal bonds and state finances are disasters, as they each appeal for USGovt aid
• A shocking 20% of US homeowners have loan balances greater than their home values
• Half of modified loans result in foreclosure within several months
• Jobs report for April revealed jobless level at 8.9% (massaged) and 15.8% (actual)
• Jobs Report for April included 66k worse revised job losses for March and February
• Continuing jobless claims at 6.56 million, grew 220k just last week
• CALPERS pension fund is insolvent, USGovt pension PBGC guarantee fund in deep deficit
• FDIC requested $500 billion in additional funds to cover bank failures (giant failure coming)
• Car sales still down 40% annually, with steep Japanese car sales declines also
• Detroit carmakers are closing down plants, with huge ripples through entire supply chain
• GM & Chrysler restructures are extremely likely to result in Chapter 7 liquidation in time
• GM burned $1.3B in Q1, burns $113 million per day, unable to transition to green cars
• Business investment down 38% in Q1, a RELIABLE LEADING INDICATOR
• Durable goods up 9% in Q1, but only after Q4 was pushed down from bank shock
• Inventory reduction not key, but rather inventory/sales ratio, since sales way down
• Economic contraction despite lower energy costs from crude oil, natural gas, gasoline
• Housing was false foundation since 2002, now in stubborn decline, the Giant Albatross
• Distress sales make up 40% of all housing sales, led by underwater sales and foreclosures
• Cramdown Law rejection means open season on foreclosures, more huge bank losses
• Banks admit that home loan are not modified after all, a revolving door to foreclosure
• Option ARMs, Jumbos, and Commercial mortgage defaults are ramping up fast
• Commercial mortgage bonds have $70-100 billion that cannot be refinanced, sure to default
• Staggering decline in consumer credit, -80% in Q3, minus $31.7B in Q4/Q1