Dr. James F. Smith

Dr. James F. Smith, chief economist for the Society of Industrial and Office REALTORS® and a senior fellow and director of the Center for Business Forecasting at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise; Adjunct Professor of Finance

(hat tip to Housing Panic, December 08, 2007)

Famous last words...

Business Economics, Apr '05: There Is No Housing Bubble in the USA

"There is no evidence of a housing “bubble” in the United States and housing demand should stay strong for years to come". Three major factors lead to this conclusion. First, the 77 million baby boomers are approaching the peak home ownership ages of 65-75 (over 83.0 percent versus a national average in 2004 of 69.0 percent). Second, immigrants, a growing share of the U.S. population, tend to buy houses ten years later than people born in the United States of the same income group and family size. Third, mortgage rates are not likely to go high enough (8.0 percent or more for 30-year fixed rate mortgages) to put a crimp in demand. Despite some areas of concern, overall homeowners’ equity is at record levels above $9 trillion. Delinquencies are still less than one percent of mortgages outstanding.

And he gives Bernanke a B+ ...

Media Mentions: The Wall Street Journal quoted finance professor James F. Smith in "Economists give Bernanke a B+ for first three months on job."(May 10)

His Areas of Expertise:
- bank/banking HAHAHA
- bankruptcy HAHAHA
- consumer behavior HAHAHA
- economics: econometrics
- Federal Reserve HAHAHA
- finance
- international: economics
- international: trade
- retailing

Robert Toll

Robert Toll, CEO Toll Brothers
I'm sorry, Bob, did you say something? When will I be kicking myself? 2015? 2020? ...

Toll posts first quarterly loss

“‘It’s not a matter of if, but a matter of when, the oversupply [of homes] is absorbed,’ said CEO Robert Toll. ‘Then we shall return to better times. I believe those who wanted to buy but didn’t will kick themselves for their reticence.’”

Let the good times roll, Bob!

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton, Wicked Witch of Washington

Ah, yes, more help for "homeowners" or "home investors".

Clinton calling for foreclosure ban: Report
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is expected to call for a 90-day ban on foreclosures and a five-year freeze on adjustable mortgage rates Monday, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Video from Louminatti: Wicked Witch of Washington

Maria Fulchini

Maria Fulchini, Realtor
More than 100 years ago, Sinclair said, ‘‘It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.’

Are we nearing end of housing slump?
"I can say that now is a very good time to buy. Even if prices do drop a bit more, interest rates may be going up," said Maria Fulchini, president of the Realtors Association of Indian River County. "A buyer is better off buying at these lower interest rates. There is incredible inventory and Vero is still a wonderful place to live."

Roy 'realrant' Merlino

Roy Merlino, Real Estate Investment Guru
"Time to go shopping!" WTF! Dude, everything not only sucks, it's 30-50% overpriced. It will take years to purge this poison. And how many realtards complained about the "over-hyped positive news" during the loose lending, global ponzi run-up? Sacramento realtors need to STFU. BTW, those "paniced" sellers need to get out because they are underwater on their loans.

The Housing Market News Is So Bad... It Makes Me Want To Buy!
Just like Warren Buffet says, "Look to buy when and where the news is all doom and gloom. That's where the deals are"(I'm paraphrasing). Guess what... these bear market cycles in the Sacramento zip codes; 95864, 95825, and 95608 almost NEVER last more that 3 years. This one started in Aug of '05. We're in year three right now. Everyone says they want to buy low and sell high. Well, buy when the predominant media and public sentiment says that everything sucks and, if you know how to find potential deals and negotiate, you'll be buying low. Thanks to the over-hyped negative news, there are a lot of paniced sellers out there with some equity who really need to get out. Time to go shopping!

http://sacinvestor.com/
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!
REAL ESTATE MARKET TANKS! DESPARATE SELLERS CAN'T FIND BUYERS! FORECLOSURES RUNNING RAMPANT! BANKING STOCKS PLUMMET...
Anyone who has even a cursory knowledge of current events can tell you that the news from the real estate and real estate finance markets is all gloom and doom. But, does this mean it's time to buy?

The Merlino RealTard/RealtWhore Team

Famous last words:
So I want everyone to remember that Tyrone says that the median price in 95864 needs to be $194,000 before anyone but a sucker would buy. Hey... do I get some kind of membership card or T-shirt for the Housing Bubble Hall of Shame? What are the criteria for induction?

http://sacramentolanding.blogspot.com/2007/11/mike-lyon-no-one-has-seen-this-before.html

Marshall Whittey

Marshall Whittey, Buyer/Home-ATM Spender
It must be 'buyers week' for the Hall of Shame; here's another one. Marshall Whittey is your typical homeowner that used their home like an ATM, spending far beyond his means. Extravagent wedding, Tahitian honeymoon, dining, flat screen TVs (a must-have for home-ATM spenders), a boat, a new truck (didn't like the color of the old one), shopping sprees, and an "investment" property--all of this on the salary of a sales manager at a flooring and tile company. Marshall is not very different from other home-ATM users, he's just stupid enough to be featured in a NY Times article. Bravo, jackass.
* Check out that flat screen TV financed through his home.

Homeowners Feel the Pinch of Lost Equity (and can no longer tap their ATM--home)
RENO, Nev., Nov. 5 — As his wedding day approached last spring, Marshall Whittey found that his money could not keep pace with the grandiosity of his plans. But rather than scale back, he chose instead, like millions of homeowners across the country, to borrow against the soaring value of his home.

He and his bride, Holly Whittey, exchanged vows on the grounds of a sumptuous private estate in the Napa Valley. They spent their honeymoon at a resort in Tahiti. “It used to be that if I wanted it, I’d just go and buy it and finance it,” Mr. Whittey, 33, said. “I’m feeling the crunch, and my spending is down significantly.”

Mr. Whittey once seemed an unlikely member of that cohort. A sales manager at a flooring and tile company, he exudes the unflappable air of someone raised amid the easy money of the casino world. Until recently, he and his wife regularly embarked on shopping sprees of $1,000 and up. He bought a 21-foot boat and two flat-screen televisions for their home. He sold his old truck and bought a new one, he said, “just ’cause I didn’t like the color.” Mr. Whittey could live in such fashion because his company was making good money and his house was appreciating.

But today, the value of his own home, which reached $500,000, has fallen and a separate investment property he bought seems likely to fetch far less than the $580,000 he owes the bank. His commissions have diminished, so his income is down. His neighbor recently fell behind on house payments, prompting the bank to foreclose. Anxiety reigns. “We used to go out to eat three or four nights a week,” Mr. Whittey said. “Now, we don’t go out at all.”
---------------
Property information:
404 Alysheba Ct, Reno, NV 89521-6274
-- 2005-06-08: purchase $283,900 with Universal American Mortgage
-- 2006-03-01: $30,000 HELOC with Countrywide
-- 2006-11-20: $375,000 REFI with First Magnus

Demos Ct, Reno, NV 89512
-- 2006-01-03: $444,000 ARM with CTX mortgage
-- 2006-01-03: $111,000 2nd with CTX mortgage
The assessment is for $200,000; don't understand the $555K loan.

3504 Herons Cir, Reno, NV, 89502
1998-10-09: purchased $136,000
2004-10-18: sold.......... $275,000

Todd Haupt

Todd Haupt, Buyer/Investor/ Flipper
If this guy had exercised just a little bit of caution he'd probably be ok, but real estate never goes down, right?

Real Estate Speculator Goes From Boom to Bust
At 32, with just one semester of community college, he owned a BMW, a Corvette and a 5,000-square-foot house worth $1.2 million. He was a creation of the boom. “I was on top of the world,” Mr. Haupt said recently.

Now Mr. Haupt’s house is in the hands of his creditors, as are the cars, three small office buildings and 89 lots he bought in a subdivision in neighboring Lincoln County.

He owes about $6 million in personal and business debt, and as Mr. Haupt’s fortunes soured, so have those of plumbers, electricians, framers, landscapers, supply stores and others that relied on his business, which he estimated at $300,000 per month.

Dave Ormsbee

Dave couldn't afford these homes, yet he knowingly signed the loan applications. He obviously had some help getting the loan, but it takes two to tango, and buyers are also to blame. I like how Mr. Ormsbee says 'they made me'. What a loser.

The Mortgage Mistake in Utah
Dave Ormsbee has never been inside this Draper home, which he now owns. Dave thought he was becoming a real estate investor. “Good credit was a curse,” he says. Dave says it was his good credit alone that bought a home in Draper and a house in St. George, both with no money out of his pocket. Now at the age of 27, Dave owes more than a million dollars in mortgage loans.

Sounds like he makes a lot of money, but quite the opposite is true. Dave is a college student and waits tables after school. He makes maybe $11,000 a year, yet he bought the Draper house for more than $700,000.“

You’re a server at a restaurant. How can you afford a $719,000 house? I can’t” says Dave. But how could a college student making $11,000 a year convince any lender to give him a million dollars in mortgages? Take a closer look at Dave Ormsbee’s loan application. It shows him as the owner of his own company, Ormsbee Graphic Design.But there is no such physical company, it’s all created on paper, he says, under the direction of Ron Haycock. “That’s the company that they had me make up,” says David.

Michael Caruso

Michael Caruso, President Orange County Association of Realtors
Michael has drank deeply from the kool-aid fountain!

Time to buy? Depends on whom you ask

"If you have a long horizon, this is a good time to buy," said Michael Caruso, president of the Orange County Association of Realtors. "You have plentiful inventory, you have willing sellers and you have agents in a problem-solving mode."

Agents in "problem-solving mode". I feel better, now. Ummmm... are these the same dumb-ass agents that put people in homes they couldn't afford in the first place?

Caruso warns that it's a good time to buy only if you plan to own a home for more than a year. But there's a lot of pent-up buyer demand, he said, predicting that "we might have a heck of a spring and summer" next year.

Michael, you may want to visit Vivian. Prices are so disconnected from earnings that you would have to be insane to pay the asking prices. Wait a few years and let them drop another 30-50%. But for god's sake, DON'T ASK A REALTARD IF IT'S A GOOD TIME TO BUY!!!

Guillermo Clan

Guillermo Clan, Ladera Ranch, CA
Ahhh... the American dream. Make boatloads of ca$h without having to work--the Guillermos cashed in on the housing bubble, bigtime! They "purchased" 7 homes and all 7 are now in foreclosure. We can thank the collective real estate community for allowing this to happen, but buyers (or straw buyers) were certainly an integral part of the ponzi scheme.
2007-10-29: Why Is Papa Guillermo Relaxing on a Beach in Cabo?
2007-10-26: Update: The Family of Ladera Ranch
2007-02-06: Fraudera Ranch: It's a Family Affair!

Kendra Todd

Kendra Todd; winner of Donald Trump's NBC show, "The Apprentice"; Broker of Florida-based The Kendra Todd Group, ex-host of the HGTV Show "My House Is Worth What?"; Author: "Risk and Grow Rich: How to Make Millions in Real Estate" (aka How to Make Millions in a Real Estate Bubble)

From her website:
- "Highly acclaimed lecturer, real estate investor..."
- "...has a commanding knowledge of investment real estate."
- "One of the most successful real estate investors in the country."
What a load of crap. How about "one of the luckiest bimbos to gamble on real estate during a growing bubble." Her real talent: Marketing herself.

Oh, Kendra, you're such a real estate genius. Tell us more...
Is the Real Estate Market in Bubble Trouble? (alternate link)
September 26, 2006
You can't go anywhere without hearing people talk about "the real estate bubble." Such talk drives me to distraction, and I'll tell you why. It's because there is no real estate bubble. Bubbles are for bathtubs.

What to Do When a Market Cools
November 3, 2006
Well, what was for some time touted as the "bursting of the real estate bubble" appears to have become a soft landing for the real estate market. In the business, we call this a "correction."

What Makes a Market Bubble-Proof
January 10, 2007
As I discovered after a recent column, to the list of subjects best avoided if you want a civil discussion -- religion and politics -- you can add the real estate bubble. Plenty of people disagreed with my take that, overall, the "bubble" was nothing more than a long-overdue correction expected in markets across the board. Yes, some markets are experiencing considerable value declines that can be classified as a "bubble," but I could probably count those markets on one hand. (must be a deformed hand with hundreds of fingers)

Here is the pilot of "My Home is Worth What?" What a piece of garbage.

The Spin (Smith) Doctors

Dr. Margaret Smith and Dr. Gary Smith
Famous last words: "When is a Housing Bubble Not a Housing Bubble?"

That was the title of a paper written by the good doctors. The answer to the question is fairly simple. A housing bubble is not a housing bubble when...
- appraisals are not fraudulently increased,
- mortgage lenders are honest and trustworthy,
- mortgage lenders verify applicant information,
- mortgage-backed securities are backed by credit worthy loans,
- realtors honestly advise their clients on affordability,
- buyers are realistic about what they can afford,
- and buyers understand the consequences of their actions.

What did the doctors conclude in their paper?

The relevant question, however, is not how much prices have increased in the past or how fast people expect them to increase in the future, but whether, at current prices, a house is still a fundamentally sound investment. Our answer is yes, even if the owner either buys for keeps (with no assumptions about futurehouse prices) or makes conservative assumptions about future housing prices.

2006-04-01: Housing Bubble? What Housing Bubble? April Fools!!!
2006-04-16: Is there a bubble? Do the math

Maria Gudelis

Maria Gudelis and Rudy Straat Speak Out...
but I wish they would STFU.
FatCat Real Estate
While there may be no direct evidence that Maria is guilty of mortgage fraud, she has been inducted because she has the audicity to post videos about the lawsuit filed against her by First Magnus. My take on her is that she's a "get rich quick" type, doesn't produce anything, and follows the "get rich quick schemes". She says she's a "professional", but I believe a professional would know when and if they they were in a potentially fraudulent situation. She definitely profited from the high appraisals and loose lending standards, and I'm sure she wasn't complaining when the money was pouring in. Watch her in the First Magnus videos, prancing in front of a Mercedes and Audi, explaining how she has to return them. Boo-hoo!
Maria: Get Rich Quick Using Real Estate
Maria: First Magnus 1
Maria: First Magnus 2
Maria: First Magnus 3
I love her comment about the "herd of luxury vehicles that we have".
I found the following blog entry by her that smacks of her own real estate pyramid scheme.
Gudelis Pyramid Blog

Vivian Hoang

Vivian Hoang, Realtor/Horticulturist
If the downturn in the real estate market is hurting your business, just put your home/investment to good use.

Elk Grove realtor linked to pot homes
ELK GROVE – An Elk Grove real estate agent has ties to nearly half of 21 raided pot houses, according to a database of properties sold in the area.
Authorities arrested Vivian Hoang, 34, Wednesday in coordinated raids in Sacramento, Elk Grove and Galt. She owned two of the houses and sold another eight while working at Elite Realty of Elk Grove, according to Metrolist Services.

Hoang left Elite Realty more than a month ago, said former co-worker Gus Chaveste who described Hoang as "very nice, humble lady."

Greg Swann

Greg Swann, Phoenix Realtor
It seems that Greg is now raising the ire of his own.

2008-02-15: Swann should ban himself from Bloodhound Blog
Greg, methinks it is about time you add your own name to the BHB blacklist and ban yourself. You are charged under your own comment bylaws (excerpted below) with first degree flame-baiting, bad behavior and insult — all banishable offenses in your desert blogdom. You are a repeat offender, sir.

Greg on bubble bloggers:
21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market . . .
"...guilty of nothing except failing to have drunk the BubbleBlogger KoolAde."

"The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish."

"I’ve been writing lovingly about this place since the day I got here, and I’ll keep it up at least until the day before I die here."

Since he's been writing "lovingly" about Phoenix, does that mean he is incapable of writing anything truthful? Incapable of writing about loose lending practices? Incapable of writing about realtors that knowingly put people into homes they cannot possibly afford? Incapable of writing about toxic loan "products"?

And he took the Kool-aid line and used it against us! He can't do that!

VFM Investment Group

VFM Investment Group, Sacramento, CA
Suspects:
Jim Martin, Gabriel Viramontes, Mario Fellini, Joseph Gallo and Jennifer Huang
Charges:
-- Accused of duping investors into buying more than 20 homes, with a total value of more than $9 million.
-- Misled investors and lied on loan applications.
2007-04-30: Investors Say They Were Duped
2007-06-05: FBI, IRS Take Action
2007-06-21: Alleged Real Estate Scheme
2007-09-21: Operating Through Loophole
Video:
Elk Grove, Part 1
Elk Grove, Part 2
Elk Grove, Part 3
Another "charge" that could be added: COMP inflating.
All this nonsense needs to be purged.

Cheryl Marie Christman

Cheryl Christman, Owner/Arsonist
When the bubble pops and you can't sell it, burn it down.

Gaines Township homeowner charged with arson
Kent County Deputies have arrested the homeowner for the September 1st fire at 6825 Deer Cove Drive.Cheryl Marie Christman, 38, was arrested and is being lodged in the Kent County Jail for intentionally setting fire to her home. Fire investigators believe that Christman was attempting to collect insurance money because the home was going to be foreclosed four days later.

Lois Henry

Lois Henry, Bakersfield Californian
Asstard meets valley girl.

Bakersfield Californian vs Blogosphere

Did they or didn't they commit fraud? Will they or won't they get jail time? (Crisp & Cole)
Who knows? Certainly not me. I’ll leave that to the experts.

Speaking of experts, I’m getting a little fed up with the “I told you sos” from the so-called experts these days. Mostly, they’re having their say anonymously on blogs, but we’ve received a few emails and phone calls as well.
Rumors are one thing, but we need hard information before we print a story.

--------------

I guess investigation is out of the question. Duhhhhhhhhhhhh...

David Crisp

Crisp & Cole, formerly of Crisp & Cole
David Crisp and Alan Cole can be given a lot of credit for destroying the real estate market in Bakersfield and surrounding areas. Recent news reports have provided evidence that they involved family members (Carl Cole, Megan Balod, Jennifer Crisp, Crisp's MOTHER!) in their nefarious flipping.
C&C Shenanigans:
Crisp & Cole defaults: Nightmare on Ordsall Street
Bakersfield home prices down 10.9% YOY; Crisp Sister in Law report
KGET Crisp Video: Mortgage Fraud--A Family Affair

2007-09-10: Formal charges have been filed
2007-09-12: FBI raids Crisp home and offices BUSTED!!!
News Video: Crisp Raided

John Lockwood

John Lockwood, Sacramento Realtor, Elite Properties
Just your typical rah-rah NAR cheerleader, and full of that special kool-aid. Read his blog and you'll get the idea. This fool will deny the existence of a bubble to the bitter end, or the bitter bottom, which is approaching very soon.
March 2006: Prices rose again in February. Darn, aren’t they supposed to keep falling? Isn’t Sacramento Land(ing) begging for us to call them price drops instead of price corrections?
And come to think of it, even when dropping that was a pretty smooth curve compared to a bursting bubble, wasn’t it? And now it’s on the rise again. Awww… and just when Sacramento Landing was reporting Central Valley “Bubble Appears to be Bursting”, we had to go screw it up with a price increase.

Here was an interesting home listed at the blog:
Aug 2006: home for sale.. 4032 Birchgrove Way, $320K
Jun 2007: price reduced.. 4032 Birchgrove Way, $255K
Jul 2007: home sold........ 4032 Birchgrove Way, $290K * 1 year later *
John-boy: "...toward the end the winning combination was a deeply discounted list price and an above market commission."
Funny business? Cash back? The true price drop appears to be 20%. The "above market commission" may have added back 10%. Is this classic illegal cash-back activity, which also inflates COMPS.

Oct 2006: "...prices are down about seven percent from last year in Sacramento County. or they’re up 2,214 percent from fifty years ago." Spin it!
Dec 2006: writing about foreclosures, REOs, NODs, short sales, etc.
Apr 2007: I’m more than unimpressed by the bubblers. I used to be simply unimpressed — now I’m impressively unimpressed!
And we are equally unimpressed with you, Realtor-boy!
No bubble, but...
John:My belief about what’s driving prices down is what always drives prices down: supply is outstripping demand. Tightening lending standards and fear mongering are wreaking havoc on the demand side, while defaults and rising inventory are adding to the supply.

This fool will deny the existence of a bubble 'til the bitter end. The "tightening" of the lending standards he refers to is requiring people to qualify for the loan.
Lockwood Blog