Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief EconomistThe Realtors trade group's senior economist, called the problems "temporary," and related to jumbo home loans above $417,000 ..(AP Business 9/5/07)"
Readers should always view any NAR forecast with caveat emptor contempt.
2008-02-19: Yun Commentary February 19, 2008
It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast. I knew that the boom was clearly unsustainable and I made the forecast in early 2007 that home prices were likely to experience a price decline on a national level for the first time since the Great Depression. The national median home price indeed fell by 1.4%. I believe I downgraded my forecast for ten or so straight months in 2007 as it was strongly pointed out to me. At the same time, the Blue Chip consensus forecast, comprised of about top 50 private forecasters, including forecasts by Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UCLA, and the like — had also downgraded the housing forecast by more than 20 straight months. Forecasting is never perfect. Forecasts are bound to be off but the forecaster's job is to make the best prognosis given the available information at the time. The readers should always view any forecast with caveat emptor.
From Paper Economy:
4/30/2007 Lereah Leaves NAR
5/9/2007 Prediction: 6.29 million units. Yun "Housing activity this year will be somewhat lower than in earlier forecasts."
6/6/2007 Prediction: 6.18 million units. Yun "Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year."
7/11/2007 Prediction: 6.11 million units. Yun "Home prices are expected to recover in 2008 with existing-home sales picking up late this year."
8/8/2007 Prediction: 6.04 million units. Yun “With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away – it’s just being delayed.”
9/11/2007 Prediction: 5.92 million units. Yun “Patient buyers in most areas who do their homework will recognize that housing remains a good long-term investment.”
10/10/2007 Prediction: 5.78 million units. Yun "The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains."
-------2008-02-19: Yun Commentary February 19, 2008
It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast. I knew that the boom was clearly unsustainable and I made the forecast in early 2007 that home prices were likely to experience a price decline on a national level for the first time since the Great Depression. The national median home price indeed fell by 1.4%. I believe I downgraded my forecast for ten or so straight months in 2007 as it was strongly pointed out to me. At the same time, the Blue Chip consensus forecast, comprised of about top 50 private forecasters, including forecasts by Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UCLA, and the like — had also downgraded the housing forecast by more than 20 straight months. Forecasting is never perfect. Forecasts are bound to be off but the forecaster's job is to make the best prognosis given the available information at the time. The readers should always view any forecast with caveat emptor.
From Paper Economy:
4/30/2007 Lereah Leaves NAR
5/9/2007 Prediction: 6.29 million units. Yun "Housing activity this year will be somewhat lower than in earlier forecasts."
6/6/2007 Prediction: 6.18 million units. Yun "Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year."
7/11/2007 Prediction: 6.11 million units. Yun "Home prices are expected to recover in 2008 with existing-home sales picking up late this year."
8/8/2007 Prediction: 6.04 million units. Yun “With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away – it’s just being delayed.”
9/11/2007 Prediction: 5.92 million units. Yun “Patient buyers in most areas who do their homework will recognize that housing remains a good long-term investment.”
10/10/2007 Prediction: 5.78 million units. Yun "The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains."
1 comment:
One of two things is going on here, and I suspect it's the latter:
1) Yun is too stupid to comprehend that the "fundamentals" that inflated the bubble (easy money, fear tactics) well overshadowed any real fundamentals (population growth, inflation) that lead to increases in real estate prices. Without the bubble "fundamentals", prices would have gone up only a couple percent a year in the first half of this decade, not the insane increases that we saw in bubble markets.
2) Yun deep down knows that his ramblings are based on faulty logic and misleading statements, but the NAR tells him to continue the BS or be fired. He'd rather lose his integrity than his seat as head of the NAR.
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