Friday, February 15, 2008

John Karevoll

John Karevoll, DataQuick Analyst
How many people can realistically afford Jumbo financing? How many are truly able to manage $417,000 worth of debt? $417K/3 = $139,000. Show of hands the number of households that earn this amount...



The latest from Karevoll the Quack...
2008-02-13: SoCal's housing-sales woes mirror San Diego's
John Karevoll, said sales were so slow, even for a January, that no clear trends could be drawn from the numbers. “There's an incredible amount of turbulence,” he said.

“San Diego just appears to be a little further along the line than the rest of Southern California and is probably in line to scrape bottom and emerge faster than the rest of the region, also,” Karevoll said.

2008-04-16: Median price keeps falling (hat tip zk)
Longtime DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said he has picked up early signs of a possible bottoming out of the housing downturn in southern Riverside County, where many San Diego workers live. Karevoll also said he thinks there is pent-up demand from would-be buyers who have been largely shut out of the market since last summer.

He predicted that San Diego's overall median may slip another $45,000 and bottom out at around $350,000.

If that happens between now and summer, I think there is also an equal chance that the median could go back over $500,000 by the end of the year,” he said. “That's how crazy it is out there.”

2002-08-27: Local housing costs drain family budgets
"People tend to get sticker shock when they look at prices," Karevoll said. "But the rubber meets the road at the end of the month when they have to write a check to the bank. I think it illustrates just how stable the market is instead of how distressed it is."
2006-02-12: Mortgage default notices are on the upswing
“If you're in economic trouble, you don't let the house you live in go into foreclosure,” he said. “You'd avoid it.”

2006-08-20: San Diego price drop was unique in region
Karevoll said San Diego seems “stuck in neutral,” where prices are likely to “wobble” between positive and negative changes, compared to levels a year ago. But he said San Diego's natural attraction to outsiders seeking homes remains strong.

2006-09-21: DataQuick Analyst John Karevoll
Projections from a "housing data specialist"

Despite recent declines in Southern California home sales and appreciation values, there is little statistical evidence supporting recent gloomy reports that the housing markets are in for a serious downturn, Karevoll said.

“We’re not seeing ominous signs; no where to the degree that there were ominous things happening back in the late 1980s and early 1990s,” Karevoll said. Notices of default – the first step in the foreclosure process – remain low in the region, and there has been little activity where sellers carry back second mortgages to help buyers, he said. But otherwise, (price appreciation) likely will stay flat,” he said.

2007-04-15: Borrowers are caught in backlash over loan defaults
Foreclosures here tripled over that period, according to DataQuick Information Systems. Even so, defaults still represent a small fraction of the market. DataQuick analyst John Karevoll says there is no cause for alarm.
2007-04-15: Region in Review
“Most of San Diego's declines, if not all, are behind us,” DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said.

2007-07-17: Housing prices in county hold their ground
“The big issue here is that with the slowdown, you would have expected prices to come down much more than they have, and it's very likely now that most of the decline off the peak for San Diego has already occurred,” he said.

2007-07-25: County foreclosures leap higher
Although foreclosures are spiking, there is no reason for homeowners to panic, Karevoll said.
“California is better off than the nation, and San Diego County is better off than California,” he said.

2007-08-14: San Diego new-home sales hit lowest point in five years
“Most of the declines in San Diego have happened,” Karevoll said. “Now it appears to be re-establishing a balance that we have yet to see for the (Southern California) region.”

2007-09-13: Housing decline continues
“San Diego is actually doing far better than the rest of the region, especially if you look at the Inland Empire.”

2007-12-24: Mortgage relief mired in red tape
Karevoll expects defaults to “snap back up” in the year ahead. [White-wash it]

2008-01-14: County housing prices down 13.1% from year ago
“We can't say home values have declined 13.1 percent,” Karevoll said. “The numbers are probably more reflective of the types of homes that are selling and the types of loans available for those buying. There's an awful lot of people buying homes who need jumbo financing and are waiting it out.”
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This comment at Ben's Blog said it best:
“‘There’s an awful lot of people [not] buying homes who [cannot afford them and therefore] need jumbo financing [which they cannot obtain] and are [either wisely or fortuitously] waiting it out.’”

4 comments:

Coreander said...

Keep in mind that all of Karevoll's words and ideas are filtered through the journalists that source him. The story is never his own.
I find it strange that you did not include, for example, this piece's final line from Karevoll, "If we do start to see [a recession], then things are going to be grim, to put it mildly.”
Doesn't exactly sound like denial to me.

Tyrone said...

Fair enough, but he still drives me nuts.

I actually haven't seen him quoted much, lately, but he's popping back into the picture.

Tyrone said...

Here's an example of a gem from today:
"We may actually be right around as low as it can go," Karevoll said. "I don't think sales counts can go lower and it would surprise me if they did."

Really?

zk said...

Here's probably Karevoll's biggest whopper of all (from an article in the SDU-T in April of this year:

"He predicted that San Diego's overall median may slip another $45,000 and bottom out at around $350,000.

“If that happens between now and summer, I think there is also an equal chance that the median could go back over $500,000 by the end of the year,” he said. “That's how crazy it is out there.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080416-9999-1n16housing.html

"Karevoll's words and ideas are filtered."

You might be able to explain away one or two quotes that way and assume they were taken out of context or otherwise twisted around. But his comments are consistently biased. That's not because of any filtering, that's because of a consistent effort on his part to affect market psychology (in other words, mislead the homebuying public).