(hat tip to Sacramento Land(ing))
"I would suggest on the new-home side that we haven't reached the bottom point yet, and I'm optimistic we will in 2007. ... I think next year is going to be very similar to this year. I don't necessarily think it's going to go down a whole lot more. I think new-home sales are going to be relatively the same as this year."
"I think sales on the new-home side are going to be pretty consistent with this year. I think we'll see a little bit of a bump in '08 in terms of sales volume. In terms of pricing we may see a consistent level. Maybe a little lower next year, not significantly by any means. And then maybe net pricing is a little bit up."
Paquin believes the average price of a new home – $404,689 this year – will fall to $374,337 next year. His good news: Builders will find a bottom in 2008. "
With the spring sales season of 2009, you will start to see some positive movement in sales rates," he told a gathering of the North State Building Industry Association.
2008 Prediction: Real estate expert predicts '09 bottom
Question: It's been the slowest year yet for home builders. When do you anticipate that the market will hit bottom?
Answer [Gregory Paquin, president, Gregory Group]: It is our expectation that the Central Valley will hit bottom during 2009 and begin to see the signs of recovery in 2010 and 2011, although some areas - Sacramento and some northern Central Valley communities - may experience the recovery sooner than others (some mid- and southern Central Valley communities). Several things will need to happen before the housing recovery can begin: a slowing of foreclosure activity, less fear about job losses, the stabilizing of the overall economy and the easing of credit markets - a swing of the pendulum back to the center.
And then this gem...
2007-04-01: Mortgage defaults on the rise, but what's next?
Gregory Paquin, president of the Gregory Group, a real-estate information and consulting service in Folsom, said he doesn't anticipate a housing-market bubble because regional employment numbers are strong enough. "But clearly there are issues with sub-prime."