Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Ventura County Blues

Exactly one year ago on December 16, 2007, the Ventura County Star ran a story on a young family, desperate to "own" a house at any cost. And now, what a cost it has been. The latest numbers from DataQuick show a 32% drop if median price for Ventura County, and interestingly enough the numbers are close to the numbers for this particular family's house. The original story is posted below, along with a video and the Zillow numbers. At what cost is home "ownership" worth? It's going to take a lot of coupon clipping to make up for $126,000 lost, so far. ($512K-$386K)

Ventura County: DataQuick
Nov '07: 516 $521,250
Nov '08: 729 $355,000 -31.90%
Dec '08: 876 $338,000

Jan '09: 578 $335,000
Feb '09: 545 $327,000

1793 Wolverton Ave, Camarillo CA 93010
3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,229 sq ft

Sale History
05/25/2007: $512,000
Zestimate®: $358,000 5/22/09 Time to walk away (see house below).

Nearby houses for sale:
2793 Munson St Camarillo CA 93010
3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,391 sq ft
For Sale: $379,900 (easy buy at $340K, if you're into falling knives)
Days on Zillow: 142

Temple Ave Camarillo CA 93010 (Foreclosure)
4 beds, 3.0 baths, 1,950 sq ft
Foreclosure: $369,900

Days on Zillow: 8

2007-12-16: Families finding struggle to stay in pricey state
Owning a house was a top priority for Mark and Marianne Moise. (Do you really think it was his top priority?)

Both of them were born and raised in Ventura County. They wanted to stay close to family and friends. Even with the high cost of homes in Ventura County, they wanted a house with enough space for 7-year-old Cody and 18-month-old Maddison.

"We were both worried we weren't going to be able to afford a home," Mark Moise said. "It was real discouraging looking at housing prices. Even fixer-uppers were out of our price range, but we found one."

With the loan, their monthly mortgage on the $512,000 home is $3,500 a month, $200 less than what they would have paid for a $475,000 home they looked at previously at a two-year fixed rate that would adjust upward after that period. The Moises are grateful for their fixed rate, as they watch people they know lose their homes when adjustable loan rates increase.
(They would be more grateful had they WAITED for the bubble to pop. The price of ownership per day: $126,000/575 days = $219/day LOST.)


Hobo said...

I really wonder what people are thinking when they do stuff like this. Clipping coupons isn't going to make up a $126k loss. Nothing short of bankruptcy can make up that kind of loss if you are an average wage earner. I'm guessing it will take these people 20 years or more to get back to square 1 on that deal.

"Even fixer-uppers were out of our price range, but we found one."

At 3x income, they'd have to make $170k yr. to buy a $512k house. I just don't see the original price being in their "price range."

Tyrone said...

Exactly, Hobo. It was simple arithmatic that made me conclude there was a huge bubble. At the bottom, this particular house might be back at $200K. That would be my guess, anyway.

ArtLatin said...

Why is it so bad to rent??? Europeans rent... even well off Europeans rent.. Here it's considered taboo or something. This couple needs to work on themselves by getting fit and perhaps more educated. They don't need a headache like a mortgage that they can't afford. They could have stayed in Ventura by renting. Now the prices there are way cheaper. UNBELIEVABLE!!!!