Welcome to 2009

Here are my concerns/predictions going into 2009. Similar concerns led me to exit the stock market last year, and I'm trying to position myself for '09, but it's difficult to find safety.

What am I missing?

Also, I added many links to '09 predictions.

• Enter 2009 in a RECESSION
• Credit Card Debt and Credit Contraction
• Alt-A, Prime ARM, Option ARM resets coming
• Increase in cost of borrowing money (eventually this must happen)
• Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be given unlimited access to the U.S. Treasury
• Continued House Foreclosures (6M-12M by 2012)
• House prices falling, and must still fall 50% in some areas
• College/University Costs (another bubble?)
• Retail Sector Collapse
• Commercial Real Estate Collapse
• Manufacturing is Falling
• Destruction of the United States’ domestic manufacturing capacity
• Rising Unemployment
• Rising Healthcare costs; medical care for unemployed; healthcare bubble?
• Tax Increases (talk has begun)
• Civil Unrest / Protests / Tax Revolution
• Increase in Crime
• Corporate Contraction
• Reduced State/Government Tax Revenue
• Existing US Debt is massive
• Capitalism is dead, they are looting the treasury
• State Debt and Municipal Bond Default
• Hedge Fund Implosion (unknown dollar amount); CDS Risk
• Rising Food Costs (deflation for other goods, but food is up)
• Weakening US Dollar leading to Devaluation? Collapse?
• Fed 'Quantitative Easing' (money dropped from helicopters)
• Rampant Inflation Possible (long-term)
• Intentional Devaluation of US Dollar
• US Dollar as the worlds reserve currency at risk; Russia and China announcing they no longer consider it the worlds reserve currency; G20 meeting in '09 will be interesting
• US Bond Market Collapse
• Bank Failure Risks
• Loss of Economic & Dollar Confidence
• US Markets Likely to Drop 25-50%
• Markets Crashing Around the World
• Foreign Currencies in Trouble (e.g. Ruble)
• Wars/Troops in Iraq and Afghanistan; billions spent every day
• Turmoil in Pakistan and India
• Iran Nuclear Capability
• Gold/Silver to rise (Gold ~$2000, Silver ~$30)
• In the not-too-distant future, 500 oz of silver will be able to buy the average house, and 1 oz of gold will be equivalent to 1 share of the DOW
  

Other Predictions:
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2009) (Market Ticker)
Our 2009 Predictions (Roger Wiegand)
10 Predictions for 2009 (Jason Hamlin)
Top Trends Of 2009 (Gerald Celente)
10 Worst Real Estate Markets of 2009
8 really, really scary predictions (Fortune)
Outlook '09: Forget Good, Economy Is Bad Or Ugly
What will 2009 bring for Gold?
10 worst real-estate markets for 2009
Golddrivers 2009 - Bullish outlook for gold (Eric Hommelberg)
2009 forecasts in a nutshell (Peter Cooper)
Prospects for 2009 (Jim Klinge)
Time to break out the crystal ball (golfer_X)
Gold and Silver in 2009 (James Turk)
2009 Real Estate Forecast: Troubles Spread
Forecast for 2009 (James Howard Kunstler)
The Year Ahead: 2009, Part 1 (Glen Allport)
2008 Year Review and Outlook For 2009 (Peter Grandich)
Outlook for 2009 (Monty Guild)
Ten Things We Might Expect to See in 2009 (Jesse's Cafe)
Predictions for 2009 (Jim Otis)
25 Predictions for 2009 (One Salient Oversight)
California 2009 Economic and Housing Forecast (Dr. Housing Bubble)
2009: Managing The Shift From Deflation Back To Inflation
Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession (John Mauldin)

Video/Audio Predictions:
Gerald Celente on GoldRadio - 12/23/2008
Marc Faber predicts economic disaster in 2009 part 1 of 2
60 Minutes: The Mortgage Meltdown - Coming ARM Resets
Analyst: One Third Of Banks Could Collapse In 2009
What is Gold Telling Us? (Oil/Gold Price Ratio is broken)
Marc Faber on CNBC - 12/29/2008
CNBC Healthcare Bubble Next to Collapse
Tech Outlook 2009
John Rubin - Gold 2009

Other Links:
‘Pay option’ mortgages could swell foreclosures (12/10/2008)
Fitch: Alt-A Mortgages Deteriorating More Rapidly than Expected (12/15/2008)
Option ARM: No one saw it Coming According to the Mainstream Media. The Alt-A and Pay Option ARM Tsunami Quickly Approaches. Charting the Option ARM and Alt-A Wave. (12/16/2008)
Quantitative Easing: FAIL (Denninger, 12/24/2008)
Russia Devalues Ruble for Third Time in Week (12/24/2008)
Bleak economic picture emerges from new data (12/24/2008)
Year Stained By Insolvency (12/26/2008)
The deflation that many analysts describe is actually a systemic liquidation that will be difficult to reverse, a necessary step by producing the critically important inflation. ... THE ENTIRE MORTGAGE INDUSTRY, COMPLETE WITH MILLIONS OF HOME MORTGAGES, AND PERHAPS COMMERCIAL MORTGAGES, WILL BE NATIONALIZED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS.
Dollar Devaluation To Fix The Great Recession (12/09/2008)
Ponzi Nation (12/26/2008)
Retail Sales Plummet (12/26/2008)
Consumers fall deeper into debt (12/23) Consumers, not PEOPLE.
U.S. Home Resales Fall (12/23/2008)
China to begin yuan-settlement trials (12/25/2008)
China to allow freer yuan trades (12/25/2008)
U.S. debt approaches insolvency (12/19/2008)
US urging calm over possible Pakistan troop moves (12/26/2008)
Retailers Brace for Major Change (12/23/2008)
Hospitals Ill from Bad Debt (12/27/2008)
Getting Excited about 2009
The Global Economic Crisis - Bad and Worsening
2008: A Year in Review, Part I (Daily Reckoning)
2008: A Year in Review, Part II
Is recession behind spike in bank robberies?
Economy Down, Theft Up
False Diagnosis of Deflation (Jim Willie)
Manufacturing index drops to 28-year low
Cash-poor states eager for a piece of Obama plan
44 States Face Huge Budget Shortfalls
U.S. governors seek $1 trillion federal assistance
California governor offers new budget fix plan
Is Social Security a Ponzi Scheme?
Late December Economic Rant -Roger Mason
How Deflation Creates Hyperinflation
*****Ten Major Threats Facing The Dollar in 2009*****
Dollar, Treasuries, Gold, Silver, Oil, Banks, Home Inventories/Delinquencies, Vacancies
Legislature to consider college tuition freeze

A Gift from Jim Sinclair

Ok, Jim Sinclair says write this down, so I'll note it right here. I consider the 'replacement' of the US dollar a low probability event, but it's not zero, and a lot can happen between now and June 2012. What really fascinates me is that he not only says it will happen, but that he provides a date.
Jim Sinclair's MineSet

Next year is going to be very interesting and the economy deserves close attention and scrutiny, particularly if your plan is to survive and possibly thrive as we emerge from the recession. My goal is survival and I emerged from '08 relatively unscathed, but I'd like to come out of the overall recession in better shape than when it started.

2008-12-28: A Gift From Jim
Dear Friends,
Here is my New Years gift to you, my extended family.

There is no way that the CONSEQUENCES of the largest creation of paper money since it was invented can be avoided or even modified. Odds now favor Alf Field’s price objective (Elliott Wave Gold Update 23, bonus article Crisis Cogitations).

January 14th 2011 to June 21st, 2012:
The best part of this gift is not the one you already know, which is January 14th 2011 (Sinclair: gold will trade at a minimum of $1650 on or before January 14th 2011), but rather the date that a new currency form will replace the form of the US dollar as you know it today which is the third week of June 2012.

Don’t laugh! Write this down and do not forget about it!

Happy (sort of) New Year,

Jim

Santa Claus Bailout Hearings

realrant 50% Watch

Roy 'realrant' Merlino, Real Estate Guru
(Part I)
Back in November '07 at a Sacramento Land(ing) post, I left the following comment (see below), which drew a response from a local realtard. He believed that a median price drop of 50% for Sacramento zip code 95864 was impossible. Well, the impossible appears to be on its way. Lets start the 'realrant 50% Watch'. We're already at 40%.

And there is a lesson to be learned from this. First, you cannot trust realtors, and second, this housing bubble was far larger than most could imagine and it is not over. House prices will continue to drop in California until 2011. The toxic ARMs are starting to reset and the economy is tanking. When things reach bottom, the words used to describe the devastation will be 'shock' and 'awe'.

Sacramento Landing Post: November 16, 2007

Tyrone said...
If that "best deal" isn't a mark-down of 30-50%, forget it; you're just a sucker, otherwise. Price-to-rent ratio has a long way to come down in Sacramento.

RealRant said...
Hey Tyrone. Re: If that "best deal" isn't a mark-down of 30-50%, forget it...So I want everyone to remember that Tyrone says that the median price in 95864 needs to be $194,000 before anyone but a sucker would buy. Hey... do I get some kind of membership card or T-shirt for the Housing Bubble Hall of Shame? What are the criteria for induction?

This is the 95864 Percent (%) Drop Watch:

Sacramento 95864
Nov '07 $388,000
...
Oct '08 $271,000 -30% (DQNews)
Nov '08 $234,000 -40% (DQNews)
Dec '08 $425,000 xxxx (DQNews) Low Sales?
Jan '09 $218,000 -43% (DQNews)
Feb '09
Mar '09
Apr '09 $325,000
May '09
Jun '09 $317,000

Target $194,000
.

Leslie Appleton-Young, Part II

Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief "Economist", California Assoc of Realtors
(Part I)

Hat tip to Captain Credit Crunch.

This is classic NAR propaganda. You can't make this stuff up; it's absolutely priceless! Are these the kind of people you want to listen to when you make 'the most important purchase of your life.' Absolutely no accountability for their false statements.

DataQuick: Bay Area median home price sinks to 8-year low

2007-04-10: Economist sees Marin holding its own in housing slump
"It's God's country, what can I say," Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, told an audience of agents Tuesday in Terra Linda. "When is the 30 percent decline in Marin County's market going to happen? Not in my lifetime." (Is she dead?)

"It's important to keep it in perspective. Do you really know anyone who thinks, 'Gee, I'm so sorry I bought in the Marin market?'"

Despite the problems in the housing sector, Appleton-Young noted that the economy is growing at a moderate pace, interest rates are relatively low and job creation has been steady in California. Also, the commercial real estate market has been "on fire," suggesting brisk job growth and investment, she said.

"It doesn't look like there's a recession coming any time soon," she said.

2008-12-18: Another month of plummeting home sales in Marin
Another month of plummeting home sales in Marin included a price drop of nearly 30 percent from November 2007, as discounted foreclosure sales continued to drive the Bay Area market.

The median price of a single-family home in Marin last month was $790,000, down from $975,000 last year, and 104 single-family homes were sold, down from 160 in November 2007, MDA DataQuick of San Diego, a real estate information service, reported Thursday.

Yvonne Herrara, Part II

Yvonne Herrara, House ATM User
(Part I)
Yvonne was featured in a Whittier Daily News article* back in Feb '08. She tapped $300,000K of her home "equity" for home improvements, a pool, expenses for your kids, and who knows what else. Since then, she was foreclosed upon and had to vacate the house. I received a comment at my original post (Part I) about the recent purchase. In a nutshell, the comment stated:

• The house was in shambles
• It had no pool
• It seemingly had no improvements
• It Was in Complete Disarray!

Can somebody point out the $300K pool? BWAHAHAHA

18820 E Laxford Rd, Covina, CA 91722-2004
3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,122 sq ft

Sale History:
01/29/1998: $132,000
06/17/2008: $225,802 *back to the bank
10/31/2008: $280,000

I hope the Herrara's made the most of their $300,000 party! This country is f'ed.

On a final note, does the bank have recourse on their debt? I believe it does. The bank could sell their debt to a collection agency for pennies on the dollar, and the collection agency could harass them forever. They could have taken a lesson from the Oropeza's; after raiding the bank's 'treasury', the Oropeza's moved to Texas, which has homestead laws that can protect them.

* The original article can no longer be found at the Whittier Daily News, not even in their archives. Very strange.

Ventura County Blues

Exactly one year ago on December 16, 2007, the Ventura County Star ran a story on a young family, desperate to "own" a house at any cost. And now, what a cost it has been. The latest numbers from DataQuick show a 32% drop if median price for Ventura County, and interestingly enough the numbers are close to the numbers for this particular family's house. The original story is posted below, along with a video and the Zillow numbers. At what cost is home "ownership" worth? It's going to take a lot of coupon clipping to make up for $126,000 lost, so far. ($512K-$386K)

Ventura County: DataQuick
Nov '07: 516 $521,250
Nov '08: 729 $355,000 -31.90%
Dec '08: 876 $338,000
Jan '09: 578 $335,000
Feb '09: 545 $327,000

1793 Wolverton Ave, Camarillo CA 93010
3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,229 sq ft

Sale History
05/25/2007: $512,000
Zestimate®: $358,000 5/22/09 Time to walk away (see house below).

Nearby houses for sale:
2793 Munson St Camarillo CA 93010
3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,391 sq ft
For Sale: $379,900 (easy buy at $340K, if you're into falling knives)
Days on Zillow: 142

Temple Ave Camarillo CA 93010 (Foreclosure)
4 beds, 3.0 baths, 1,950 sq ft
Foreclosure: $369,900
Days on Zillow: 8

2007-12-16: Families finding struggle to stay in pricey state
Owning a house was a top priority for Mark and Marianne Moise. (Do you really think it was his top priority?)

Both of them were born and raised in Ventura County. They wanted to stay close to family and friends. Even with the high cost of homes in Ventura County, they wanted a house with enough space for 7-year-old Cody and 18-month-old Maddison.

"We were both worried we weren't going to be able to afford a home," Mark Moise said. "It was real discouraging looking at housing prices. Even fixer-uppers were out of our price range, but we found one."

With the loan, their monthly mortgage on the $512,000 home is $3,500 a month, $200 less than what they would have paid for a $475,000 home they looked at previously at a two-year fixed rate that would adjust upward after that period. The Moises are grateful for their fixed rate, as they watch people they know lose their homes when adjustable loan rates increase. (They would be more grateful had they WAITED for the bubble to pop. The price of ownership per day: $126,000/575 days = $219/day LOST.)

Art Laffer, Part II

Art Laffer, Economist, B.A. Econ Yale '63, MBA/Ph.D. Econ Stanford '65/'71
This one is for you, seyelda.
(Part I)

Not only does he refuse to pay the penny, he won't be sending that 'nice note' to Peter Schiff. He also says you basically cannot forecast the economy beyond 9 months into the future. Funny that I don't recall him giving this disclaimer in the first video. What a complete and total bum.

At 4:00 in the second video, Peter mentions the ARMs resetting. This is all over the news right now. I guess the mainstream media decided to inform the sheeple, although the MSM and the sheeple can't seem to look forward more than a month ahead, which makes Laffer's forecasting (9 months) look pretty good compared to morons.

YouTube Videos:
Art Laffer Refuses to Pay the Penny
Schiff vs Laffer

Gregory Paquin

Gregory Paquin, President, Gregory Group
(hat tip to Sacramento Land(ing))

2006 Prediction:
"I would suggest on the new-home side that we haven't reached the bottom point yet, and I'm optimistic we will in 2007. ... I think next year is going to be very similar to this year. I don't necessarily think it's going to go down a whole lot more. I think new-home sales are going to be relatively the same as this year."

"I think sales on the new-home side are going to be pretty consistent with this year. I think we'll see a little bit of a bump in '08 in terms of sales volume. In terms of pricing we may see a consistent level. Maybe a little lower next year, not significantly by any means. And then maybe net pricing is a little bit up."

2007 Prediction:
Paquin believes the average price of a new home – $404,689 this year – will fall to $374,337 next year. His good news: Builders will find a bottom in 2008. "

With the spring sales season of 2009, you will start to see some positive movement in sales rates," he told a gathering of the North State Building Industry Association.

2008 Prediction: Real estate expert predicts '09 bottom
Question: It's been the slowest year yet for home builders. When do you anticipate that the market will hit bottom?

Answer [Gregory Paquin, president, Gregory Group]: It is our expectation that the Central Valley will hit bottom during 2009 and begin to see the signs of recovery in 2010 and 2011, although some areas - Sacramento and some northern Central Valley communities - may experience the recovery sooner than others (some mid- and southern Central Valley communities). Several things will need to happen before the housing recovery can begin: a slowing of foreclosure activity, less fear about job losses, the stabilizing of the overall economy and the easing of credit markets - a swing of the pendulum back to the center.

And then this gem...
2007-04-01: Mortgage defaults on the rise, but what's next?
Gregory Paquin, president of the Gregory Group, a real-estate information and consulting service in Folsom, said he doesn't anticipate a housing-market bubble because regional employment numbers are strong enough. "But clearly there are issues with sub-prime."

Sonny Kim

Sang-Min 'Sonny' Kim, Super-Flipper

Wow, this guy turned $100 into $300,000 in 3 months! Impressive!

And a 'Fraud Expert' stated that 'it was obvious the banks weren't paying attention'. Ya' think? Too bad they couldn't, or wouldn't, put a stop to this when it was 'obviously' taking place. They could have read some of the housing bubble blogs if they needed help.

Sonny Kim’s investment company bought this house at 4809 N 17th St., Belmont Heights, in April 2006 for a $100 deed and sold it three months later for $300,000.

2008-11-30: A case study in housing collapse
This husk sold for $300,000 in 2006 with the help of a no-money-down mortgage from a subsidiary of Washington Mutual Bank. The owner defaulted; WaMu owns it now. Listed for $52,000, the house could be yours for $35,000 cash.

"What we had here was an obvious case of mortgage fraud," said Josh Parker, a Coldwell Banker Realtor.

Most of the homes Sang-Min Kim sold are empty now. Many have code violations, and are clustered in impoverished neighborhoods such as Belmont Heights and Sulphur Springs.

The trail of foreclosures and blight is lined with the bad mortgages approved or assigned by Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Bank of America, National City Bank, Lehman Bros., Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo.

The loans — many made by banks now getting billions in a taxpayer bailout — dwarfed the true value of the properties. Some borrowers had no prospects to suggest they could pay off the loans. Multiple loans from the same bank branch sometimes went to a questionable borrower within weeks of each other.

"It's obvious the banks weren't paying attention, or worse," said Richard Hagar, a property fraud expert.

Dawn Aguiar

Dawn Aguiar, House Debtor/Deadbeat
Ms. Aguiar should not be seeking a write-down in her mortgage principal. Houses might be selling for $450-500K in her neighborhood, but at the bottom, $300K might be the price. And if this economy unfolds into a full-blown meltdown, they won't be able to give these houses away.


Dawn, this video is for you:
THE HOUSING BUBBLE EXPLAINED ** SPECIAL SHEEP VIDEO!

2008-11-25: Homeowners say no help from lenders
Customers of Countrywide, Wachovia and other lenders describe the firms as uncooperative, ineffective and rude. Borrowers say they must navigate a maze of phone banks. They say lenders won't offer good deals."They're supposed to be getting people into fixed-rate loans they can afford, reducing their principal," Aguiar said. "That's not what I'm getting from Countrywide."

"Countrywide says it wants to help people restructure? That's baloney," said Dawn Aguiar, who bought her Fremont home for $587,000 in 2005. "They have not been helpful at all." She financed the purchase with $586,000 in Countrywide loans.

Homes in her neighborhood sell for $450,000 to $500,000. Her house is "under water" — worth less than the loan.

Aguiar said she often hears Countrywide and other lenders are aggressive in finding ways to redo loans.

"They're supposed to be getting people into fixed-rate loans they can afford, reducing their principal," Aguiar said. "That's not what I'm getting from Countrywide."
Her adjustable rate loan balance increases monthly. She's behind in her payments.

"One lady I spoke to was rude, she had a real attitude," Aguiar said. "She talked down to me like I was a deadbeat."
===============
Ok, lets check out her house...

4343 Delaware Dr Fremont CA 94538
3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,104 sq ft
Sale History
12/16/2005: $587,000
08/26/1998: $234,000

$587K for 1100 sq ft!!!
$533/sqft!!!

These are the idiots we're wasting tax dollars on. Lets do the math:
- assume 20% down
- $470K mortgage loan

Historical affordability guidelines are 3x gross earnings for loan amount. Lets use 3.5x...
$470K/3.5 = $134K

The Aguiar household must earn $134K, right?
(at 10% down, household income of $150K!, 0% down, $168K!)

Bay Area Whine

Dawn Aguiar, House Debtor/Deadbeat

Roy Risk, House Debtor ('Risk')
Mark Gagliardi, House Debtor
Sue Chai, House Debtor
Rachelle Gonzales, House Debtor
Karen Mims, House Debtor

They should have looked for the good deals before signing up to a crippling mortgage they could not afford. It wasn't too difficult to understand that they were overpaying in the midst of an epic bubble, unless, of course, they actually believed the realtard line that "real estate only goes up", or better yet, "you'll be priced out forever." BWAHAHAHA

What they fail to grasp, which isn't suprising since they overpaid in the first place, is that the "deals" they are seeking will not be deals in 1-3 years. We are still facing a catastrophic economic collapse. These houses will fall another 30-50% from today's prices.

Dawn, this video is for you:
THE HOUSING BUBBLE EXPLAINED ** SPECIAL SHEEP VIDEO!

2008-11-25: Homeowners say no help from lenders

Customers of Countrywide, Wachovia and other lenders describe the firms as uncooperative, ineffective and rude. Borrowers say they must navigate a maze of phone banks. They say lenders won't offer good deals.

"They're supposed to be getting people into fixed-rate loans they can afford, reducing their principal," Aguiar said. "That's not what I'm getting from Countrywide." (Kiss my a**, Dawn)

"One lady I spoke to was rude, she had a real attitude," Aguiar said. "She talked down to me like I was a deadbeat." (You're a deadbeat, Dawn)

Risk and his wife paid $921,000 in 2005 for a home, financing it with a $736,000 World Savings loan. Wachovia later inherited those loans. Their house is now worth $580,000, based on an appraisal in October.

Wachovia's offer? A first mortgage of about $580,000, at a fixed rate of 5.4 percent, with a 30-year loan term. So far, so good. But Wachovia also insisted on a second loan of $175,000 — to cover the difference between the current value of the house and the loan balance of around $755,000.

"What's going on here?" Risk said. "Are they going to help people or are they not?" (Kiss my a**, Roy)

Mark Gagliardi has sought for months to rework his loan with Countrywide on his Oakley home, but to no avail. Gagliardi and his wife bought the house in 2006 for $768,500 and obtained two Countrywide loans totaling $691,000. Homes nearby now sell for $410,000 to $450,000.

"There is no way to refinance because there is no value left in the house," Gagliardi said. "We are hanging on by the skin of our teeth. We admit our part in this. But Congress did its job. The president did his job. Now the banks are dragging their feet."

Gagliardi wants a 30-year fixed-rate loan based on his home's current value. He has gotten nowhere with Countrywide, despite placing many calls to the firm. (Kiss my a**, Mark)

Sue Chai Spaulding wants Bank of America to restructure a $250,000 equity line of credit on her Berkeley home. She got the loan to help buy a San Francisco house.

"They don't want to help you," Spaulding said. "But they shouldn't take this so lightly. These are people's lives. They have been rude to me." She has retained a lawyer. (Kiss my a**, Sue)

Oakley resident Rachelle Gonzales started a loan workout process in May with American Home Mortgage. In September, the lender rejected the deal.

"It's so frustrating," Gonzales said. "They say they'll help. Then they say no. They have called me names. They have called me a slime. This has been awful. Just awful." Her loan is now delinquent. (Rachelle, you're slime; kiss my a**)

Karen Mims sought for more than a year to convince her lender, Aurora Loan Services, to modify the $509,000 loan on her Oakland home. The payments are too high. "I have desperately tried to work things out," Mims said.

Mims was told she would be helped. But Aurora rejected a new loan although Mims was on a payment plan. On Nov. 12, Aurora foreclosed on the loan. She remains in her house of 11 years.

"This is my home," Mims said. (Karen, it's not your house, anymore; kiss my a**)

"I'm ready to let (Wachovia) have the house," Risk said. "See if they can get $580,000 for it."

He says it's frustrating to see those he believes created the crisis receive help while he and his wife are ignored by lenders.

"They better be careful because those of us at the back of the line just might create the new foreclosure crisis," Risk said
======================

Roy, you and everybody else that participated in this bubble have destroyed the country through your lack of responsibility and self-entitlement attitudes. The meltdown is just getting warmed up. I was out of the stock market a year ago, and now I'm bracing for the next few steps in the process... currency devalution and raging inflation. Got gold?

Walmart, Part 2

Walmart (Part 1)

Shopping, zombie savages, indeed.

2008-11-28: Wal-Mart worker dies in Black Friday stampede
Bargain-hungry shoppers stepped on a fallen Wal-Mart worker, who died Friday morning, after the crowd knocked down the store's front doors -- and the worker -- during the "utter chaos" of a Black Friday shopping melee, Nassau County police said."

A throng of shoppers . . . physically broke down the doors" at around 5 a.m. Friday and knocked the 34-year-old part-time worker to the ground as the crowd pushed its way into the store at the Green Acres Mall, Nassau police said.

"They kept shopping. It's not right. They're savages,"

Richard Gaylord, Part II

Dick Gaylord, REMAX Realtor / 2008 NAR President
(Part I)
thanks ArtLatin

Here's a little going away speech from Dick Gaylord. It's about fishing.... errrrr... real estate... errrrr... fishing... Well, it's about something.

Exactly why is the NAR going to fight the reduction in the FHA loan limit? People CANNOT afford those prices. The prices MUST, and will, come down.

Dick, real estate is going to be dead for a long, long time.

And he says we need a third economic stimulus bill to help the economy. Here is what I think we need:

- a return to traditional (ie non-fraudulent) lending standards

- improvement in our nationwide production capacity with jobs creation

- reduction in dependency on foreign consumer-goods
- elimination of the self-entitlement attitude
- stop the wallstreet criminals
- return to the gold standard?

- elimination of the fed?
I'm sure this isn't all it'll take, but it's a start.

2008-11-07: Challenging Market Focus Of Speech
You can’t catch any fish if you don’t go fishing. Sometimes you just catch little fish, sometimes you don’t catch any fish, but sometimes you catch a big fish. You can’t do that if you’re not fishing.”

Gaylord talked about the lobbying power of the 1.3 million-member NAR, pointing out that the group was instrumental in getting a housing component into the economic incentive package. One of the largest changes was increasing the limit the FHA would loan to $729,000, up from less than $500,000. That limit is set to go back down to $625,000 next year, and the NAR is fighting to avoid that drop, Gaylord said.

“We have to remember, and remind our leaders, that real estate is what is going to bring this economy back. We need a third economic stimulus bill to get money to lenders. And we have to work to make that happen.”

Credit Card Bond Sale

Credit Card Bond Sale

What's next?

- Severely restricted card limits

- Credit cut-off

- Less cards

Get used to it, "entitlement generation".





2008-11-05: Credit Card Bond Sales at Zero, First Time Since 1993
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Credit card companies were shut out of the market for bonds backed by customer payments in October for the first time in more than 15 years, as investors shunned the debt amid the global credit freeze.

A weakening job market and a looming recession are making it harder for consumers to make monthly payments, eroding confidence among investors about the safety of credit-card-backed bonds. It's the first month since April 1993 that there have been no sales, according to Wachovia Corp. data. Issuers sold $17.1 billion of the debt in October 2007, the data show.

U.S. Debt

I.O.U.S.A.: The 30 Minute Version

Video describing the $53 Trillion U.S. debt. (32:35)

Hmmmm... you mean we can't consume more than we produce, indefinitely??


Desire for higher Corporate profits and desire by workers for higher wages drove our production capacity to other countries. We need to suck it up, take less pay, live simpler lives, and bring jobs and production back the U.S.A.

How are we going to get out of this mess?

How about: (based on '08 budget at 8:45 in video)

• 10% Reduction in Social Security ($61B)
• 50% Reduction in Medicaire/Medicaid ($267B)
• 10% Reduction in Military (bring troops home) ($61B)
• 10% Reduction in "Everything Else" ($93B)

That's $482 Billion. And, of course, we need to stop consuming so much and start exporting more. I didn't say it would be easy, but it's a start.

Show Your Patriotism

Vote the Banker Bailout Supporters Out of Office!


Here are a few to get you started:

- Barney Frank, House Rep Mass (D) (Part 1, 2)

- Anna Eshoo, House Rep CA (D), 14th District (blog)

- Laura Richardon, House Rep CA (D), 37th District (Part 1, 2)

Final Vote Tally - Vote #1, Vote #2

Office of Clerk: US House of Representatives
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Barney Frank, Part II

Barney "I tawt I taw a putie tat" Frank, United States Rep, Mass (D)

Part 1

Shameless posturing in preparation for the voting on Tuesday.

2008-10-31: Rep. Frank: bailout funds must be used for lending
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Companies receiving public money under a U.S. government financial rescue program must use it for lending or they will be violating the law, the powerful chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee said on Friday.

"I am deeply disappointed that a number of financial institutions are distorting the legislation that Congress passed at the president's request to respond to the credit crisis by making funds available for increased lending," Rep. Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, said in a statement.

"Any use of the these funds for any purpose other than lending -- for bonuses, for severance pay, for dividends, for acquisitions of other institutions, etc. -- is a violation of the terms of the Act," he added.

Rebuttal at Market Ticker: Heh Barney Fife!

2008-09-30: Herald readers put blame on Barney Frank

Vote this stupid son-of-a-bitch out of office.

Video of Barney Frank clearly stating that he sees no evidence of safety of soundness issues in a report on Freddie Mac HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM YOUTUBE!!!

If somebody has access to the video, let me know where it is.
This one is back up:
Democrats Covering up the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Economic Crisis

Here is an alternate video showingt the Democrat Coverup:
>>> Democrats Covering up the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac <<<

.

FDIC & Treasury

FDIC & US Treasury


Ok, so lets do some remedial math.
3,000,000 house debtors
Cost: $50 Billion

Cost per household : $50B / 3,000,000 = $16,000

So they are trying to say that bailing out 3 million households will only cost an average of $16K per household. Lets try some other calculations.

Lets assume 1/2 of these houses require principal reduction.

Lets also assume that the average reduction for these houses is $50,000.

Cost for House Debtor Bailout: $50,000 x 1,500,000 = $75,000,000,000

That is $75 Billion for a conservative estimate. In California, you'd need at least $100,000 per household to save house debtors. If all the household required $100K, that would bring the estimate to $150 Billion. And don't forget the additional 'moral hazard' this will introduce, but what the heck, we're not a capitalistic country anymore.

That number seems a bit more realistic than the $50B bullshit they're shoveling, below.

2008-10-29: Treasury, FDIC Crafting Plan to Rework Millions of Mortgages
Officials with the Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are crafting a plan under which the government would guarantee the mortgages of as many as 3 million homeowners now struggling to avoid foreclosure, according to three sources familiar with the discussions.

Under the program being discussed, the lender would agree to reduce borrowers’ monthly payments, for example by lowering the interest rate or principal of a mortgage loan, based on the homeowner’s ability to pay. These reconfigured loans could help homeowners avert foreclosure.

It would cost between $40 billion and $50 billion, sources said. The program is being discussed as members of Congress are voicing frustrations that the $700 billion rescue program thusfar has been aimed at helping banks, but not homeowners.

June Reyno, Protesting House Owner Debtor & Realtor
Hmmmmm... some information has surfaced regarding this individual. It's a shame the reporter didn't do his job.

What she may have omitted from her sob story:

- She possibly refinanced and used $300K for a failed business

- She is a realtor

- “Specialist in Mitigating Foreclosure Losses”

BTW, here is her website: http://junereynosales.com/

Video: Woman Chained To House To Prevent Eviction

2008-10-27: San Diego Woman Chains Herself to Foreclosed Home to Resist Eviction
SAN DIEGO,CA. A Mira Mesa woman and her husband are fighting their eviction from the place they’ve called home for the last twenty years on Priestley Street. Unable to afford the adjustable rate mortgage monthly payments of $5,800, the couple and their five dogs have been evicted, but June Reyno is fighting the eviction - which could be today the 27th or tomorrow - by chaining herself to her house. They expect the San Diego Sheriff’s Department to come out to the Reyno’s home any day. The Sheriffs delivered the eviction notice on October 8th.

From Comments OB Rag Blog:
I have no sympathy. Channel 8 reported a more complete story. She refinanced and used $300k+ in a business venture that failed. According to sources readily available online, the house was offered up for auction one year ago with an estimated default of over $633k, and the original sale price when she and her previous husband bought it was $198k. She styled herself a foreclosure and short sale specialist.

Housing Doom Story Coverage (be sure to watch the video)

Ratings Agencies

Moody's

IS THIS A SICK JOKE? Code of conduct?

Moody's Investors Service Code of Professional Conduct

Standard & Poor's (Part 1: The Bear Stearns Rating)

Standard & Poor’s is a leading provider of financial market intelligence. The world’s foremost source of credit ratings, indices, investment research, risk evaluation and data, Standard & Poor’s provides financial decision-makers with the intelligence they need to feel confident about their decisions.

Well, it looks like the last few pieces of the Housing Bubble puzzle are coming together. I'm sure you've all read the articles and watched the congressional hearings on the ratings agencies. What is truly fascinating about their actions is that their sole purpose for existing is to ACCURATELY and ETHICALLY assess quality and risk of financial obligations.

2008-10-22: Moody's, S&P Employees Doubted Ratings
"Let's hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of cards falters,'' one e-mail from an S&P employee said.

"It seems to me that we had blinders on and never questioned the information we were given.. Combined, these errors make us look either incompetent at credit analysis, or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue.''

Mark Schniepp

Mark Schniepp, Director of the California Economic Forecast
I saved the link to this article because I thought this guy was quite comical. And Trulia says the median Ventura County sales price is $370K.

2008-02-08: Mixed outlook on Ventura economy
Despite a sinking real estate market and job losses at two major employers, Ventura County could still dodge a much feared recession if interest rates continue to fall and Congress passes an emergency stimulus package, a local economist said Thursday.

“Recession is likely to be avoided in Southern California, but we’ll be close,” said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast, which released its county projections for 2008. “It’s a slowdown, not a recession.”

But the county still faces a tough road ahead. Sales of existing homes hit bottom in the fall, Schniepp said. The number of mortgage defaults and foreclosures reached record levels in 2007, and the trend will continue through the new year.

“It’s pretty bleak,” he said during a conference in Thousand Oaks. “We’ve got retail sales going down. We’ve got the apartment market that’s softened. We’ve got the Amgen and Countrywide fallout. We have got a housing market that is absolutely at rock bottom… . I think 2008 will be the transition year; 2009 will be a lot better.”

Schniepp said it’s not all bad news. Bank of America announced last month that it would buy Countrywide for $4 billion. He said there is little duplication between Countrywide and BofA operations and that further job cuts would probably occur gradually.

Sales of existing homes last year were down nearly 30% to less than 4,100 homes, the lowest level in 25 years, Schniepp said. Further pressuring the market were default notices – warnings from mortgage companies about nonpayment – which more than doubled to 5,022 last year.

But the median price for existing homes only slipped about 2%, to $673,786, in Ventura County, according to the California Assn. of Realtors. The median price is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.

“There is a limit to how far a home can go down. It’s time for buyers to realize they are about as low as they’ll go,” Schniepp said.

Schniepp said he expects home prices to remain steady if a provision in President Bush’s stimulus package survives – raising mortgage loan limits from $417,000 to $729,750 to assist high-cost states – and interest rates remain low.

“It you don’t have to sell, then hold on until 2010. If you do have to sell, sell right now, immediately,” Schniepp said. “And if you’re a buyer, buy new – these are the best deals you’re going to get.”

Among the forecast’s bright spots is commercial real estate. Retail vacancies remain at record lows, and construction is set to begin this year on about 1 million square feet of office space.

And then...

2008-10-17: Ventura's investments in trouble
Ventura stands to lose up to $10 million of taxpayer money from soured investments in the banking industry — the only city in Ventura County facing such risks.

Chris 'Save the Consumer' Dodd

Chris Dodd, Part II (Part I), Senator D-Connecticut

You know, the idea of taking my money (gold and silver, not US junk dollars) and moving to Canada or some other country sounds more and more attractive every day.

What happened to CITIZENS of the UNITED STATES?!!

2008-10-14: Dodd Planning Credit Crisis Aid Package for Consumers
Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said he will offer legislation to help consumers weather the credit crunch, including a 90-day foreclosure freeze and credit-card lending protections.

``These are areas where I think the American consumer can benefit,'' Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, told reporters in Washington today after a meeting with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

Dodd wants to include his proposals in economic-stimulus legislation he said may be taken up during a lame-duck session of Congress. He aims to build on the Treasury Department's plan to use $250 billion of taxpayer funds to purchase stakes in financial companies to shore up a banking system roiled by the biggest housing slump since the Great Depression.

The measure would also include provisions to curb predatory lending and allow bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages for struggling borrowers, Dodd said.

``It seems to me appropriate that we take steps to provide some relief for the consumer,'' given how much assistance the government is providing to companies, Dodd said.

Fannie Mae & Family

Fannie Mae & Family
I'm sorry, but it doesn't matter if you're black or white; if you can't tote the note, you shouldn't have a mortgage. These criminal congressman must be voted out.

Fannie:
Frank Raines, ex-CEO Fannie Mae
Supposedly cooked the books to line his pockets.
"These assets are so riskless..."

Daniel Mudd, ex-CEO Fannie Mae
Fannie and La Famiglia (Democrats, Congressional Black Caucus)
HE SAID IT!

Family:
Rep. Maxine Waters, D-California
"Under the outstanding leadership of Frank Raines, everything in the 1992 act has worked just fine."

Rep Gregory Meeks, D-New York
"The GSEs have done a tremendous job."

Rep. Lacy Clay, D-Missouri
"This hearing is about political lynching of Franklin Raines."
(interesting word choice)

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Massechusetts
"I don't see anything in this report that raises safety and soundness problems."

Sen. Barrack Obama, D-Illinois
Friend of Fannie Mae that received $126K in donations--2nd highest amount.

Rep. Artur Davis, D-Alabama

Late '04:

Linda Minnifield

Linda Minnifield, Average Alt-A Debtor
I added Linda as an example of the upcoming Alt-A debacle. Watch the video. She is so underwater that the only logical action for her is to walk away. What do you think?

1343 7th St, Rodeo, CA
Zestimate: $306K
Sale History 12/02/2004: $455,000

Here are nearby houses for sale:
507 Sonoma; Price: $250K
438 Vallejo; Price: $214K

Mortgage Meltdown Fears Persist
Her 'good credit' allowed her to buy the house for $455K. I wonder if she had 'good income'.
$455K/3 = $152K (I think Dr. Housing Bubble would love this case.)

AIG

American International Group, Inc, (AIG)
It's not enought that the taxpayer has to pay for their bailout. Now we have to pay for their lavish parties at exclusive ('expensive') resorts.
2008-10-09: AIG, party on!

Billion Dollar Bailout Used For Parties at The Ritz Carlton

Thank You Housing Bubble

You've destroyed housing, the stock market, the bond market, the economy, and any confidence in anything, with, perhaps, one or two exceptions, ...

Agelakis Yippy-Dog Family

George Agelakis Clan, House Buyers/Flippers

Ok, back to accused fraudsters.

2008-10-01: Shell Game
Seven Neighbors, 11 Foreclosures, and More Than a Million Dollars' Profit in One Baltimore Neighborhood

The dogs yipped nightly. The neighbors petitioned. One neighbor says he at first tried to reason with Agelakis, who operates a hair salon three blocks away, but he "was an asshole," the man, who asked that his name not be revealed, says.

According to land records, the small group of people who bought, traded and sold each other houses here before defaulting on their loans are more than just neighbors, lovers and/or housemates.

According to land records George Agelakis, for example, is step brother to both Bayardo Alvarez (who gave him 223 S. Madiera St.) and Kenneth C. Wallace (from whom Agelakis bought 211 S. Madeira St.)

Other than sharing a step brother (or two—George's brother, Emmanuel, also bought property here) the relationship between Wallace and Alvarez is unknown. Wallace is the domestic partner of Kenneth Koehler, at 2215 Gough St., while Alvarez resides (or at least did until recently) a few steps away, at 2225 Gough, with Joshua Goldberg, a mortgage broker who facilitated the property transfers and also notarized the claims of familial relations.
Alvarez, meanwhile, is also the step-son of Janet Praid, who lives a few doors south at 320 S. Madiera, and formerly owned 2225 Gough.

So—assuming their claims land records are true—Praid is Alvarez's step-mother, Alvarez is George Agelakis's step-brother, Agelakis is Wallace's step-brother, and Wallace is (according to Koehler) Koehler's domestic partner.

Barney Frank

Barney Frank, United States House of Representatives, Mass (D)
The articles detailing this guys plan(s) to bail out house debtors are too numerous list, but here are a few. Lets keep an eye on this kook.

By the way,... Frank, the problem is PRICE; gimmicky legislation ain't gonna cut it.

2008-05-15: Barney Frank's bailout would mainly benefit banks
A new bill sponsored by Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, directs the Federal Housing Authority (FHA) to buy up loans that are facing foreclosure. If the bill passes, the FHA will guarantee new mortgages at a price 15 percent below the current appraised value of the house. This would require the current lender to take a hit, since it will not get back the full value of the home, but even 85 percent of the full value of the home is likely more than the lender would get by foreclosing. In principle, homeowners will also benefit, since they get to stay in their home with a new lower-interest mortgage.

2008-05-13: FHA Chief Criticizes Rescue Plan
The House of Representatives last week passed a bill championed by House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank that would enable struggling borrowers to refinance into more affordable loans guaranteed by the government. The legislation would require a significant expansion of the FHA—an idea recently endorsed by Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke.

Paper Economy had an e-mail dialogue going with this nut. Search 'Barney Frank' to find the articles at Paper Economy.

2008-09-24: Barney Franks -- Asstard of the Year
Is this guy making it up as he goes along?? He need to be behind bars.


2008-10-02: O'Reilly vs Frank
Barney, GO AWAY!!!!!


2008-10-04: Who else gave Barney big money?

Smack-Down: Peter Schiff - Lawrence Yun

The failed bailout vote is called "unecessary uncertainty" by L. Yun.

Schiff counters with high house prices and hyper-inflation.

Match over, monkey-boy, Yun.

Schiff 10, Realtors/Analysts 0